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John Yudkin: the man who tried to warn us about sugar

Terrific article reprinted in the SMH from the Sunday Telegraph, London…

One of the problems with the anti-sugar message – then and now – is how depressing it is. The substance is so much part of our culture, that to be told buying children an ice cream may be tantamount to poisoning them, is most unwelcome. But Yudkin, who grew up in dire poverty in east London and went on to win a scholarship to Cambridge, was no killjoy.

”He didn’t ban sugar from his house, and certainly didn’t deprive his grandchildren of ice cream or cake,” recalls his granddaughter, Ruth, a psychotherapist. ”He was hugely fun-loving and would never have wanted to be deprived of a pleasure, partly, perhaps, because he grew up in poverty and had worked so hard to escape that level of deprivation.”

”My father certainly wasn’t fanatical,” adds Michael. ”If he was invited to tea and offered cake, he’d accept it. But at home, it’s easy to say no to sugar in your tea. He believed if you educated the public to avoid sugar, they’d understand that.”

”It is not just Big Tobacco any more,” Chan said last year. ”Public health must also contend with Big Food, Big Soda and Big Alcohol. All of these industries fear regulation and protect themselves by using the same tactics. They include front groups, lobbies, promises of self-regulation, lawsuits and industry-funded research that confuses the evidence and keeps the public in doubt.”

 

http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/diet-and-fitness/john-yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar-20140212-32h03.html

John Yudkin: the man who tried to warn us about sugar

Date

Julia Llewellyn Smith

A British professor’s 1972 book about the dangers of sugar is now seen as prophetic. Then why did it lead to the end of his career? 

Sweet beauty: is sugar aging?Not so sweet: sugar. Photo: Lyndall Larkham

A couple of years ago, an out-of-print book published in 1972 by a long-dead British professor suddenly became a collector’s item.

Copies that had been lying dusty on bookshelves were selling for hundreds of pounds, while copies were also being pirated online.

Alongside such rarities as Madonna’s Sex, Stephen King’s Rage (written as Richard Bachman) and Promise Me Tomorrow by Nora Roberts; Pure, White and Deadly by John Yudkin, a book widely derided at the time of publication, was listed as one of the most coveted out-of-print works in the world.

Pure, White and Deadly.Pure, White and Deadly.

How exactly did a long-forgotten book suddenly become so prized? The cause was a ground-breaking lecture called Sugar: the Bitter Truth by Robert Lustig, professor of paediatric endocrinology at the University of California, in which Lustig hailed Yudkin’s work as ”prophetic”.

”Without even knowing it, I was a Yudkin acolyte,” says Lustig, who tracked down the book after a tip from a colleague via an interlibrary loan. ”Everything this man said in 1972 was the God’s honest truth and if you want to read a true prophecy you find this book… I’m telling you every single thing this guy said has come to pass. I’m in awe.”

Posted on YouTube in 2009, Lustig’s 90-minute talk has received more than 4.1 million hits and is credited with kick-starting the anti-sugar movement, a campaign that calls for sugar to be treated as a toxin, like alcohol and tobacco, and for sugar-laden foods to be taxed, labelled with health warnings and banned for anyone under 18.

Lustig is one of a growing number of scientists who don’t just believe sugar makes you fat and rots teeth. They’re convinced it’s the cause of several chronic and very common illnesses, including heart disease, cancer, Alzheimer’s and diabetes. It’s also addictive, since it interferes with our appetites and creates an irresistible urge to eat.

This year, Lustig’s message has gone mainstream; many of the New Year diet books focused not on fat or carbohydrates, but on cutting out sugar and the everyday foods (soups, fruit juices, bread) that contain high levels of sucrose. The anti-sugar camp is not celebrating yet, however. They know what happened to Yudkin and what a ruthless and unscrupulous adversary the sugar industry proved to be.

The tale begins in the Sixties. That decade, nutritionists in university laboratories all over America and Western Europe were scrabbling to work out the reasons for an alarming rise in heart disease levels. By 1970, there were 520 deaths per 100,000 per year in England and Wales caused by coronary heart disease and 700 per 100,000 in America. After a while, a consensus emerged: the culprit was the high level of fat in our diets.

One scientist in particular grabbed the headlines: a nutritionist from the University of Minnesota called Ancel Keys. Keys, famous for inventing the K-ration – 12,000 calories packed in a little box for use by troops during the Second World War – declared fat to be public enemy number one and recommended that anyone who was worried about heart disease should switch to a low-fat ”Mediterranean” diet.

Instead of treating the findings as a threat, the food industry spied an opportunity. Market research showed there was a great deal of public enthusiasm for ”healthy” products and low-fat foods would prove incredibly popular. By the start of the Seventies, supermarket shelves were awash with low-fat yogurts, spreads, and even desserts and biscuits.

But, amid this new craze, one voice stood out in opposition. John Yudkin, founder of the nutrition department at the University of London’s Queen Elizabeth College, had been doing his own experiments and, instead of laying the blame at the door of fat, he claimed there was a much clearer correlation between the rise in heart disease and a rise in the consumption of sugar. Rodents, chickens, rabbits, pigs and students fed sugar and carbohydrates, he said, invariably showed raised blood levels of triglycerides (a technical term for fat), which was then, as now, considered a risk factor for heart disease. Sugar also raised insulin levels, linking it directly to type 2 diabetes.

When he outlined these results in Pure, White and Deadly, in 1972, he questioned whether there was any causal link at all between fat and heart disease. After all, he said, we had been eating substances like butter for centuries, while sugar, had, up until the 1850s, been something of a rare treat for most people. ”If only a small fraction of what we know about the effects of sugar were to be revealed in relation to any other material used as a food additive,” he wrote, ”that material would promptly be banned.”

This was not what the food industry wanted to hear. When devising their low-fat products, manufacturers had needed a fat substitute to stop the food tasting like cardboard, and they had plumped for sugar. The new ”healthy” foods were low-fat but had sugar by the spoonful and Yudkin’s findings threatened to disrupt a very profitable business.

As a result, says Lustig, there was a concerted campaign by the food industry and several scientists to discredit Yudkin’s work. The most vocal critic was Ancel Keys.

Keys loathed Yudkin and, even before Pure, White and Deadly appeared, he published an article, describing Yudkin’s evidence as ”flimsy indeed”.

”Yudkin always maintained his equanimity, but Keys was a real a——-, who stooped to name-calling and character assassination,” says Lustig, speaking from New York, where he’s just recorded yet another television interview.

The British Sugar Bureau put out a press release dismissing Yudkin’s claims as ”emotional assertions” and the World Sugar Research Organisation described his book as ”science fiction”. When Yudkin sued, it printed a mealy-mouthed retraction, concluding: ”Professor Yudkin recognises that we do not agree with [his] views and accepts that we are entitled to express our disagreement.”

Yudkin was ”uninvited” to international conferences. Others he organised were cancelled at the last minute, after pressure from sponsors, including, on one occasion, Coca-Cola. When he did contribute, papers he gave attacking sugar were omitted from publications. The British Nutrition Foundation, one of whose sponsors was Tate & Lyle, never invited anyone from Yudkin’s internationally acclaimed department to sit on its committees. Even Queen Elizabeth College reneged on a promise to allow the professor to use its research facilities when he retired in 1970 (to write Pure, White and Deadly). Only after a letter from Yudkin’s solicitor was he offered a small room in a separate building.

”Can you wonder that one sometimes becomes quite despondent about whether it is worthwhile trying to do scientific research in matters of health?” he wrote. ”The results may be of great importance in helping people to avoid disease, but you then find they are being misled by propaganda designed to support commercial interests in a way you thought only existed in bad B films.”

And this ”propaganda” didn’t just affect Yudkin. By the end of the Seventies, he had been so discredited that few scientists dared publish anything negative about sugar for fear of being similarly attacked. As a result, the low-fat industry, with its products laden with sugar, boomed.

Yudkin’s detractors had one trump card: his evidence often relied on observations, rather than on explanations, of rising obesity, heart disease and diabetes rates. ”He could tell you these things were happening but not why, or at least not in a scientifically acceptable way,” says David Gillespie, author of the bestselling Sweet Poison. ”Three or four of the hormones that would explain his theories had not been discovered.”

”Yudkin knew a lot more data was needed to support his theories, but what’s important about his book is its historical significance,” says Lustig. ”It helps us understand how a concept can be bastardised by dark forces of industry.”

From the Eighties onwards, several discoveries gave new credence to Yudkin’s theories. Researchers found fructose, one of the two main carbohydrates in refined sugar, is primarily metabolised by the liver; while glucose (found in starchy food like bread and potatoes) is metabolised by all cells. This means consuming excessive fructose puts extra strain on the liver, which then converts fructose to fat.

This induces a condition known as insulin resistance, or metabolic syndrome, which doctors now generally acknowledge to be the major risk factor for heart disease, diabetes and obesity, as well as a possible factor for many cancers. Yudkin’s son, Michael, a former professor of biochemistry at Oxford, says his father was never bitter about the way he was treated, but, ”he was hurt personally”.

”More than that,” says Michael, ”he was such an enthusiast of public health, it saddened him to see damage being done to us all, because of vested interests in the food industry.”

One of the problems with the anti-sugar message – then and now – is how depressing it is. The substance is so much part of our culture, that to be told buying children an ice cream may be tantamount to poisoning them, is most unwelcome. But Yudkin, who grew up in dire poverty in east London and went on to win a scholarship to Cambridge, was no killjoy.

”He didn’t ban sugar from his house, and certainly didn’t deprive his grandchildren of ice cream or cake,” recalls his granddaughter, Ruth, a psychotherapist. ”He was hugely fun-loving and would never have wanted to be deprived of a pleasure, partly, perhaps, because he grew up in poverty and had worked so hard to escape that level of deprivation.”

”My father certainly wasn’t fanatical,” adds Michael. ”If he was invited to tea and offered cake, he’d accept it. But at home, it’s easy to say no to sugar in your tea. He believed if you educated the public to avoid sugar, they’d understand that.”

Thanks to Lustig and the rehabilitation of Yudkin’s reputation, Penguin republished Pure, White and Deadly 18 months ago. Obesity rates in the UK are now 10 times what they were when it was first published and the amount of sugar we eat has increased 31.5 per cent since 1990 (thanks to all the ”invisible” sugar in everything from processed food and orange juice to coleslaw and yogurt). The number of diabetics in the world has nearly trebled. The numbers dying of heart disease has decreased, thanks to improved drugs, but the number living with the disease is growing steadily.

As a result, the World Health Organisation is set to recommend a cut in the amount of sugar in our diets from 22 teaspoons per day to almost half that. But its director-general, Margaret Chan, has warned that, while it might be on the back foot at last, the sugar industry remains a formidable adversary, determined to safeguard its market position.

Recently, UK food campaigners have complained that they’re being shunned by ministers who are more than willing to take meetings with representatives from the food industry. ”It is not just Big Tobacco any more,” Chan said last year. ”Public health must also contend with Big Food, Big Soda and Big Alcohol. All of these industries fear regulation and protect themselves by using the same tactics. They include front groups, lobbies, promises of self-regulation, lawsuits and industry-funded research that confuses the evidence and keeps the public in doubt.”

Dr Julian Cooper, head of research at AB Sugar, insists the increase in the incidence of obesity in Britain is a result of, ”a range of complex factors”.

”Reviews of the body of scientific evidence by expert committees have concluded that consuming sugar as part of a balanced diet does not induce lifestyle diseases such as diabetes and heart disease,” he says.If you look up Robert Lustig on Wikipedia, nearly two-thirds of the studies cited there to repudiate Lustig’s views were funded by Coca-Cola.

But Gillespie believes the message is getting through. ”More people are avoiding sugar, and when this happens companies adjust what they’re selling,” he says. It’s just a shame, he adds, that a warning that could have been taken on board 40 years ago went unheeded: ”Science took a disastrous detour in ignoring Yudkin. It was to the detriment of the health of millions.”

Sunday Telegraph, London

the world’s most potent, booming unnatural resource: data

 

Predictive analytics is “powered by the world’s most potent, booming unnatural resource: data.”

You have been predicted — by companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities. Their computers say, “I knew you were going to do that!”

Great quotes from Eric Siegel.

http://bigthink.com/big-think-edge/you-can-predict-the-future

You CAN Predict the Future, and Influence It Too

FEBRUARY 13, 2014, 12:00 AM
Shutterstock_64061473

We are better than ever at making predictions – whether you’re going to click, lie, buy or die, as Eric Siegel puts it.

In a lesson on Big Think Edge, the only forum on YouTube designed to help you get the skills you need to be successful in a rapidly changing world, Siegel, a former professor at Columbia University, shows how predictive analytics is “powered by the world’s most potent, booming unnatural resource: data.”

You have been predicted — by companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities. Their computers say, “I knew you were going to do that!”

Advertising

Netflix and Pandora predict the movies and music you will like. Online dating sites select possible matches for you based on your interests. Companies can predict whether you’re going to default on your credit card statements and whether you’re going to commit an act of fraud.

So what do governments and companies do with this gold mine? In the video below, Siegel tells Big Think that these entities not only have the power to predict the future “but also to influence the future.”  And so can you.

Sign up for a free trial subscription on Big Think Edge and watch Siegel’s lesson here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kriiamz9KqQ

Reflection Questions 
— Describe how your company is using predictive analytics to influence any operational decisions? Do you analyze who is likely to respond before initiating a marketing campaign? If not, how could this help streamline operations in your department?– How are predictive analytics at work in your life? Do you use Netflix or Pandora to predict movies or music you will like? Have you used an online dating site that selects possible matches for you based on your interests? How has this worked out for you?

— Is the use of predictive analysis exposing people to other people, entertainment, or services that more accurately match their interests or is it pigeonholing people by suggesting things they may like based only on a limited amount of information on previous decisions they’ve made?

For expert video content to inspire, engage and motivate your employees, visit Big Think Edge

Watch the video below and sign up for your free trial to Big Think Edge today. 

Strategic thinking

  • From this HBR article
  • strategic thinking is seen as a universally important skill
  • it about being able to see, predict, and plan ahead
  • Strategic leaders take a broad, long-range approach to problem-solving and decision-making that involves objective analysis, thinking ahead, and planning. That means being able to think in multiple time frames, identifying what they are trying to accomplish over time and what has to happen now, in six months, in a year, in three years, to get there,” he writes. “It also means thinking systemically. That is, identifying the impact of their decisions on various segments of the organization–including internal departments, personnel, suppliers, and customers.
  • It’s also important to pass strategic thinking onto employees
  • One of the key prerequisites of strategic leadership is having relevant and broad business information that helps leaders elevate their thinking beyond the day-to-day
  • need to communicate a well-articulated philosophy, a mission statement, and achievable goals throughout your company
  • Whenever possible, try to promote foresight and long-term thinking
  • promote a “future perspective” in your company. If a manager suggests a course of action, you need to him or her ask two questions: First, what underlying strategic goal does this action serve, and why? And second, what kind of impact will this have on internal and external stakeholders? “Consistently asking these two questions whenever action is considered will go a long way towards developing strategic leaders,” he writes.

http://www.inc.com/will-yakowicz/how-to-foster-strategic-thinking-in-employees.html

How to Get Your Employees to Think Strategically BY 

Studies show that strategic thinking is the most important element of leadership. But how do you instill the trait in others at your company?

What leadership skill do your employees, colleagues, and peers view as the most important for you to have? According Robert Kabacoff, the vice president of research at Management Research Group, a company that creates business assessment toolsit’s the ability to plan strategically.

He has research to back it up: In the Harvard Business Review, he cites a 2013 study by his company in which 97 percent of a group of 10,000 senior executives said strategic thinking is the most critical leadership skill for an organization’s success. In another study, he writes, 60,000 managers and executives in more than 140 countries rated a strategic approach to leadership as more effective than other attributes including innovation, persuasion, communication, and results orientation.

But what’s so great about strategic thinking? Kabacoff says that as a skill, it’s all about being able to see, predict, and plan ahead: “Strategic leaders take a broad, long-range approach to problem-solving and decision-making that involves objective analysis, thinking ahead, and planning. That means being able to think in multiple time frames, identifying what they are trying to accomplish over time and what has to happen now, in six months, in a year, in three years, to get there,” he writes. “It also means thinking systemically. That is, identifying the impact of their decisions on various segments of the organization–including internal departments, personnel, suppliers, and customers.”

As a leader, you also need to pass strategic thinking to your employees, Kabacoff says. He suggests instilling the skill in your best managers first, and they will help pass it along to other natural leaders within your company’s ranks. Below, read his five tips for how to carry out this process.

Dish out information.

Kabacoff says that you need to encourage managers to set aside time to thinking strategically until it becomes part of their job. He suggests you provide them with information on your company’s market, industry, customers, competitors, and emerging technologies. “One of the key prerequisites of strategic leadership is having relevant and broad business information that helps leaders elevate their thinking beyond the day-to-day,” he writes.

Create a mentor program.

Every manager in your company should have a mentor. “One of the most effective ways to develop your strategic skills is to be mentored by someone who is highly strategic,” Kabacoff says. “The ideal mentor is someone who is widely known for his/her ability to keep people focused on strategic objectives and the impact of their actions.”

Create a philosophy.

As the leader, you need to communicate a well-articulated philosophy, a mission statement, and achievable goals throughout your company. “Individuals and groups need to understand the broader organizational strategy in order to stay focused and incorporate it into their own plans and strategies,” Kabacoff writes.

Reward thinking, not reaction.

Whenever possible, try to promote foresight and long-term thinking. Kabacoff says you should reward your managers for the “evidence of thinking, not just reacting,” and for “being able to quickly generate several solutions to a given problem and identifying the solution with the greatest long-term benefit for the organization.”

Ask “why” and “when.”

Kabacoff says you need to promote a “future perspective” in your company. If a manager suggests a course of action, you need to him or her ask two questions: First, what underlying strategic goal does this action serve, and why? And second, what kind of impact will this have on internal and external stakeholders? “Consistently asking these two questions whenever action is considered will go a long way towards developing strategic leaders,” he writes.

IMAGE: GALLERY STOCK
LAST UPDATED: FEB 10, 2014

Health Miranda: You have the right to keep your health information private, anything you disclose about your health can and will be used against you.

  • The Affordable Care Act now lets employers charge employees different health insurance rates, based on whether they exercise, eat healthful foods and other “wellness” choices they make outside of work.
  • As different phases of the law have taken effect and companies have better understood how to implement it, there basically have been three levels of wellness engagement:
  • Level 1 encourages employees to join a wellness program with exercise and nutrition activities and undergo biometric screenings that check weight, body mass, cholesterol and other health indicators.

    Level 2 trades the carrot for the stick. Employees (and insured family members) who don’t submit to the screening and participate in wellness programs face steep penalties; they may have to pay up to 30 per cent more for their share of health insurance costs.

  • Level 3 in the march towards wellness adopts “outcomes” based programs that can require employees to meet specific fitness goals or pay higher insurance costs.
  • WELLOGRAPH.com looks like an interesting prospect at AUD354

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/wearable_tech_privacy_headed_on_1uDsKFvA5cacLwe6vTKIBN

Wearable tech, privacy on collision course

PUBLISHED: 8 HOURS 48 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 4 HOURS 28 MINUTES AGO

Wearable tech, privacy on collision courseThe Zepp Labs wearable sensor on a golf glove … this year’s Consumer Electronics Show was dominated by the next generation of fitness devices. With more advanced sensors and improved hardware.

BRIER DUDLEY

Outrage over NSA spying is nothing compared to how people may react to the upcoming collision with wearable computing, medical privacy and new insurance rules.

You don’t need leaked documents to see it coming, though it took me a while to connect the dots after seeing the bewildering array of new health and fitness-tracking gadgets shown at January’s Consumer Electronics Show.

The show was seen as a turning point for “wearables”, including watches, wristbands, headsets and other gadgets. The most popular wearables monitor physical activity and connect wirelessly to phones, which may then upload the data to online services.

Research firms expect the fitness-wearables category to soar over the next few years, outpacing the growth of smartphones and tablets.

Not everyone wants to have a little computer on the wrist or head keeping track of what a wearer does around the clock. But I wonder if they won’t have much choice in the future, under new insurance laws in the US that invite companies to scrutinise and monitor their employees’ health and fitness.

In the past, medical information was generally none of your employer’s business. It’s still technically private. But the health-care overhaul known as Obamacare is chipping away at this wall.

The Affordable Care Act now lets employers charge employees different health insurance rates, based on whether they exercise, eat healthful foods and other “wellness” choices they make outside of work.

A 2013 survey by Aon Hewitt consulting found that motivating employees to change health behaviours is a “significant focus” over the next three to five years at 69 per cent of employers.

It doesn’t seem like a bad thing because it’s wrapped up in warm and fuzzy doublespeak. This isn’t about saving companies money; it’s about your health. Companies aren’t forcing you to participate, they’re offering rewards. We all want to be healthy, right?

As different phases of the law have taken effect and companies have better understood how to implement it, there basically have been three levels of wellness engagement.

TRACKING HEALTH

 

The first encourages employees to join a wellness program with exercise and nutrition activities and undergo biometric screenings that check weight, body mass, cholesterol and other health indicators.

Level 2 trades the carrot for the stick. Employees (and insured family members) who don’t submit to the screening and participate in wellness programs face steep penalties; they may have to pay up to 30 per cent more for their share of health insurance costs.

The law calls this a “reward” for participation. Flip it around and it’s a penalty for not authorising your employer to manage and monitor how you live outside of work.

Better health overall is in everyone’s best interest. But you can’t help but be cynical when it becomes tied to benefit levels, especially in an era of vanishing pensions, flat pay cheques and longer work days.

It’s too early to say whether wellness programs will make a big difference. In the meantime, they can change the workplace dynamic.

By insinuating that individual choices are the driver of health-care costs, they erode the social contract of group plans in which everyone contributes to coverage that takes care of each other and their families in case something happens.

I’m digressing.

Level 3 in the march towards wellness adopts “outcomes” based programs that can require employees to meet specific fitness goals or pay higher insurance costs.

At this point, when body tracking and measurements are used to adjust benefits, it gets harder to maintain the pretence of privacy. Even if individual records are masked, the data will provide enough insight to assess employees’ potential health costs as well as job performance, enabling a new form of discrimination.

Aon Hewitt’s survey said 64 per cent of employers that offer health-care coverage are using data to find cost savings and as they shift towards health-improvement strategies, they’re relying “more on integrated, dynamic data aggregation tools to laser in on the best opportunities for reduction of unnecessary costs”.

TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS HELP MONITORING

 

Tech companies are ahead of the game. One is Limeade, a hot start-up in Bellevue that last year doubled sales of its software platform, which employers and insurance companies use to encourage and monitor wellness activities. The platform can sync with dozens of fitness-tracking devices and apps.

Last month’s Consumer Electronics Show was dominated by the next generation of fitness devices. With more advanced sensors and improved hardware, they’re building on the success of activity trackers such as the Fitbit and Nike FuelBand that millions of people — including me — already use. Show organisers gave an “innovation award” to the $US320 ($354) Wellograph Watch, which includes a continuous heart-rate monitor, wellness tracker and running watch in a sleek case.

Fitness tracking may become hard to avoid. Intel unveiled sensors at CES that can be embedded into common devices such as earbuds, which then track physical activity. The data can be relayed to a wellness app on a phone and online wellness programs.

Apple also is chasing this opportunity. With the iPhone 5S, it began using a processor with built-in sensors that can be used by fitness apps.

On January 31, word surfaced that Apple had a big meeting with the Food and Drug Administration, apparently to discuss medical apps and perhaps its own version of a health-monitoring watch. This isn’t too surprising. After years of back and forth with tech companies and others, the FDA in September issued guidelines for health-related apps and gadgets, to clarify which will be considered medical devices and require regulatory approval.

I suggest regulators go a step further and issue privacy guidelines for wellness programs, health apps and wearable devices that may share data with insurers and employers. They could be modelled on the Miranda warnings that police use, informing people of their right to avoid self-incrimination under the Fifth Amendment:

“You have the right to keep your health information private, anything you disclose about your health can and will be used against you.”

Oz economy outpaces confectionary growth

  • Well this is good news, I suppose, but it is still growing at 2.6%… better not tell Barclay and Brand-Miller!?
  • Chocolate accounts for about half of the value, with sugar confectionery at a quarter.
  • 255,000 tonnes in volume in 2012.
  • Sugar confectionery is the dominant segment in China.
  • Australia’s per capita consumption of chocolate at 6.3kg, higher than New Zealand (4.8kg) but below Switzerland (11.9kg) and the UK (9.4kg).

http://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Markets/Oz-economy-outpaces-confectionery-growth/

Oz economy outpaces confectionery growth

Post a commentBy Annie-Rose Harrison-Dunn , 10-Feb-2014

Australia's confectionery market fails to keep pace with economy, according to research

Australia’s confectionery market fails to keep pace with economy, according to research

The Australian confectionery market is growing slower than the country’s economy, according to a report from Market Line.

The research firm told ConfectioneryNews that stable growth in the Australian confectionery market over the past five years was forecast to continue to 2017, but said the country’s economy was growing faster.

Behind overall growth

“If we look at GDP between 2008 and follow it through to the end of our forecast period in 2017, we see an average growth rate of just below 6%. In comparison, the confectionery market in Australia is set to have an average growth rate of 2.6% a year, over the same period, meaning that this market is growing at a slower rate than the Australian economy,” Market Line said.

Chocolate dominates the Australian confectionery market and accounted for over half of value sales in the sector in 2012, while sugar confectionery accounted for around a quarter of revenues in the same year.

Market Line said cereal bars, gum and chocolate sales were expected to slowly decelerate up to 2017, meanwhile sugar confectionery sales were expected to grow slowly.

In a separate report released last year, Leatherhead estimated that the Australian confectionery market was worth 255,000 tonnes in volume in 2012, representing a 10% increase from 2008.

Competitive neighbors

Australia is Asia-Pacific’s third largest confectionery market, with Japan and China taking the top spots. “Australia has, however, grown at a faster compound annual growth rate (CAGR) than the Japanese market between 2008 and 2012 at 4.8% as opposed to 0.5%,” Market Line said.

The Chinese market has grown at over double the rate of the Australian market at a CAGR of 4.8%, where sugar confectionery is the dominant segment.

Looking at Australian confectionery on this global stage, the Leatherhead report put Australia’s per capita consumption of chocolate at 6.3kg, higher than New Zealand (4.8kg) but below Switzerland (11.9kg) and the UK (9.4kg).

Successful aging – doesn’t matter when, as long as you do start exercising

  • Those respondents who had been and remained physically active aged most successfully, with the lowest incidence of major chronic diseases, memory loss and physical disability. But those people who became active in middle-age after having been sedentary in prior years, about 9 percent of the total, aged almost as successfully. These late-in-life exercisers had about a seven-fold reduction in their risk of becoming ill or infirm after eight years compared with those who became or remained sedentary, even when the researchers took into account smoking, wealth and other factors.
  • Exercise confers a reduction in mortality approximately the same as smoking cessation.
  • successful aging involves minimal debility past the age of 65 with little or no serious chronic disease diagnoses, depression, cognitive decline or physical infirmities that would prevent someone living independently
  • several, unsurprising factors contribute: Not smoking; Moderate alcohol consumption, and; having money.
  • In Australian men aged between 65 and 83, those who engaged in about 30 minutes of exercise five or so times per week were much healthier and less likely to be dead 11 years after the start of the study than those who were sedentary, even when the researchers adjusted for smoking habits, education, body mass index and other variables.

 

PHYS ED 
Exercise to Age Well, Whatever Your Age
By GRETCHEN REYNOLDS
Jon Feingersh/Getty Images

 

Phys Ed
PHYS ED

Gretchen Reynolds on the science of fitness.

Offering hope and encouragement to the many adults who have somehow neglected to exercise for the past few decades, a new study suggests that becoming physically active in middle age, even if someone has been sedentary for years, substantially reduces the likelihood that he or she will become seriously ill or physically disabled in retirement.

The new study joins a growing body of research examining successful aging, a topic of considerable scientific interest, as the populations of the United States and Europe grow older, and so do many scientists. When the term is used in research, successful aging means more than simply remaining alive, although that, obviously, is the baseline requirement. Successful aging involves minimal debility past the age of 65 or so, with little or no serious chronic disease diagnoses, depression, cognitive decline or physical infirmities that would prevent someone from living independently.

Previous epidemiological studies have found that several, unsurprising factors contribute to successful aging. Not smoking is one, as is moderate alcohol consumption, and so, unfairly or not, is having money. People with greater economic resources tend to develop fewer health problems later in life than people who are not well-off.

But being physically active during adulthood is particularly important. In one large-scale study published last fall that looked at more than 12,000 Australian men aged between 65 and 83, those who engaged in about 30 minutes of exercise five or so times per week were much healthier and less likely to be dead 11 years after the start of the study than those who were sedentary, even when the researchers adjusted for smoking habits, education, body mass index and other variables.

Whether exercise habits need to have been established and maintained throughout adulthood, however, in order to affect aging has been less clear. If someone has slacked off on his or her exercise resolutions during young adulthood and early middle-age, in other words, is it too late to start exercising and still have a meaningful impact on health and longevity in later life?

To address that issue, researchers with the Physical Activity Research Group at University College London and other institutions turned recently to the large trove of data contained in the ongoing English Longitudinal Study of Aging, which has tracked the health habits of tens of thousands of British citizens for decades, checking in with participants multiple times and asking them how they currently eat, exercise, feel and generally live.

For the study, appearing in the February issue of the British Journal of Sports Medicine, scientists isolated responses from 3,454 healthy, disease-free British men and women aged between 55 and 73 who, upon joining the original study of aging, had provided clear details about their exercise habits, as well as their health, and who then had repeated that information after an additional eight years.

The researchers stratified the chosen respondents into those who were physically active or not at the study’s start, using the extremely generous definition of one hour per week of moderate or vigorous activity to qualify someone as active. Formal exercise was not required. An hour per week of “gardening, cleaning the car, walking at a moderate pace, or dancing” counted, said Mark Hamer, a researcher at University College London who led the study.

The scientists then re-sorted the respondents after the eight-year follow-up, marking them as having remained active, become active, remained inactive or become inactive as they moved into and through middle-age. They also quantified each respondent’s health throughout those years, based on diagnosed diabetes, heart disease, dementia or other serious conditions. And the scientists directly contacted their respondents, asking each to complete objective tests of memory and thinking, and a few to wear an activity monitor for a week, to determine whether self-reported levels of physical activity matched actual levels of physical activity. (They did.)

In the eight years between the study’s start and end, the data showed, those respondents who had been and remained physically active aged most successfully, with the lowest incidence of major chronic diseases, memory loss and physical disability. But those people who became active in middle-age after having been sedentary in prior years, about 9 percent of the total, aged almost as successfully. These late-in-life exercisers had about a seven-fold reduction in their risk of becoming ill or infirm after eight years compared with those who became or remained sedentary, even when the researchers took into account smoking, wealth and other factors.

Those results reaffirm both other science and common sense. Anoteworthy 2009 study of more than 2,000 middle-aged men, for instance, found that those who started to exercise after the age of 50 were far less likely to die during the next 35 years than those who were and remained sedentary. “The reduction in mortality associated with increased physical activity was similar to that associated with smoking cessation,” the researchers concluded.

But in this study, the volunteers did not merely live longer; they lived better than those who were not active, making the message inarguable for those of us in mid-life. “Build activity into your daily life,” Dr. Hamer said. Or, in concrete terms, if you don’t already, dance, wash your car and, if your talents allow (mine don’t), combine the two.

New activity guidelines

  • 60 minutes physical activity per day
  • Add muscle strengthening exercise twice a week

http://theconversation.com/sit-less-move-more-new-physical-activity-guidelines-22948

Sit less, move more: new physical activity guidelines

If you’ve been sitting for an hour, you’ve been sitting for too long. Image from shutterstock.com

Australians should aim for around 60 minutes of physical activity per day, double the previous recommendation, according the new national physical activity guidelines, published today.

And for the first time, the guidelines urge the 12 million Australians who are sedentary or have low levels of physical activity to limit the time they spend sitting.

The recommendations aim to prevent unhealthy weight gain and reduce the risk of some cancers. Physical inactivity is the second-greatest contributor to the nation’s cancer burden, behind smoking.

The guidelines emphasise that doing any physical activity is better than doing none, but ideally adults will get 150 minutes of moderate physical activity each week. This includes brisk walking, recreational swimming, dancing and household tasks such as raking leaves.

This could be swapped for 75 minutes of high-intensity exercise that makes you “huff and puff”, such as jogging, aerobics, fast cycling and many organised sports. Ten minutes of vigorous exercise equals moderate-intensity activity.

The guidelines also recommend including muscle-strengthening activities at least two times a week. This could be achieved by going to the gym and using free weights or resistance exercise machines.

“But it also includes things like going to the store and carrying your shopping bags,” said Jannique van Uffelen, senior research fellow in active living at Victoria University. “It’s anything where you’ve got repeated stimuli with increasing weight or resistance for your muscles so they become stronger.”

Baker IDI’s laboratory head of physical activity David Dunstan said he was heartened to see the recommendations emphasise the health harms of prolonged sitting, for which there has been growing evidence over the past decade.

“For many people, sitting occupies a lot of their time. We need to be encouraging people to avoid long periods of sitting and break up sitting throughout the day,” he said.

“If you’ve been sitting for an hour, you’ve been sitting for too long. We should be aiming to break up sitting times with light-intensity activity one to two times per hour.”

The other major change to the guidelines is the inclusion of muscle strengthening activity, Associate Professor Dunstan said, and the acknowledgement that while brisk walking will improve heart fitness, it will not necessarily improve muscle strength.

“What happens is as we hit the age of 45, we start to lose our muscle mass and that’s accelerated once we get past 65,” he said. “As we lose our muscle mass, we lose our muscle strength, which is an important part of our daily lives.”

Dr van Uffelen said the guidelines were “thorough and comprehensive” and based on the latest international evidence. But with just 43% of Australians meeting the previous target of 30 minutes of moderate-intensity activity on most days of the week, many people found it difficult to work the recommendations into their day-to-day life.

“We live in a society where it’s often easier to jump in a car than to go for a walk or to get to places on your bike,” Dr van Uffelen said.

Governments must “make it easier for people to choose the active option, instead of the passive option – for example, good infrastructure for active transport,” she said.

Kids’ activity

The guidelines recommend children aged five to 12 accumulate at least 60 minutes of moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity each day and include activities that strengthen the muscles and bones three days per week.

“We’re not suggesting that young children go out and start lifting weights,” said Alfred Deakin Professor at Deakin University Jo Salmon, who co-authored the scientific review and recommendations for children.

“Strength training activities include running, jumping, skipping, sports like netball or basketball – anything that involves being on your feet and running around. Even hanging from the monkey bars, you’re holding their own body weight,” she said.

“This is based on evidence around strength training for optimising bone health for kids – that’s really going to see them have much less chance of developing osteoporosis in adulthood. Childhood is really a key period for laying down healthy bones.”

The guidelines also emphasise the importance of reducing the time children spend sitting. And it’s not just to promote physical health, Professor Salmon said, emerging evidence shows prolonged sitting affects cognitive development and educational outcomes.

Teachers can play a part by delivering standing lessons, she said, by delivering standing lessons, getting children up during class, giving active homework and encouraging students to complete their homework while standing.

“The other major part of sitting for a lot kids and adolescents is sitting in a car. So if you can promote active transport and even public transport and walking to school, you’re going to reduce the sitting time in transit,” Professor Salmon said.