All posts by blackfriar

Upworthy, flow, dopamine…

This is actually about behaviour change, flow and dopamine…  vulnerable, manipulable moments in conscious life being exploited by new online offerings like upworthy. Downloadable crack. Hope it starts being used more for good…

http://bigthink.com/21st-century-spirituality/this-cat-may-have-just-saved-canada-you-wont-believe-how

This Cat May Have Just Saved Canada. You Won’t Believe How.

DECEMBER 10, 2013, 4:37 PM
Bt-cat

Last Friday, Guelph resident Andrew McPherson’s cat, Tutu, appears to have achieved the impossible. Local residents claim their small town will never be the same again, and the future of Canada now seems certain.

Ok, so this article has nothing to do with a mystical cat or the sleepy suburb an hour outside of Toronto, but if you’re reading this, your curiosity was piqued. And there’s good reason.

Part of it is what is now dubbed the Upworthy-style headlines. Started in March 2012 by ex-employees of Move On and The Onion, the viral media site clocked an incredible 87 million unique visitors last month. The site’s headline aesthetic—a mini-story that makes clicking through irresistible—has been cloned by numerous websites attempting to create their own clickbait.

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While The Atlantic’s Robinson Meyer recently explained the analyticsbehind the massive surge in Upworthy’s traffic, what is really interesting is why the titles are so seductive. It all has to do with our SEEKING system.

While not usually considered an emotional system in our brain, Estonian-born American neuroscientist Jak Panksepp argues that SEEKING is a function of the main instinctual-emotional system in humans in The Archaeology of Mind. We need to be in this mode in order to chase a romantic partner, find food, get to work in the morning…even get out of bed in the morning.

While such regular activities seem everyday, it is in this enormous neural pathway—from the midbrain to the Lateral hypothalamus into the medial frontal cortex—that dopamine is released. And without dopamine, we would have no motivation to do anything in life.

Yet what makes this system even more incredible is not that dopamine is released during gratification, but several seconds before we’re gratified. That is, while we’re engaged in seeking, our anticipation of an event—the first sip of beer, the moments before you undress a partner, the build up before the beat drops—forces dopamine to be released.

Relating this pathway to music, Ohio State university music researcherDavid Huron writes,

As we listen to music our anticipation builds, which generates pleasurable experiences for the listener. When a stimulus is anticipated, a positively-valenced emotional response arises.

This is why disappointment ensues if you’re expecting a beat to drop and it doesn’t—or if you click through an article about nationalistic Canadian cats to find out it has nothing to do with feline life.

The anticipation phase could also help explain the ‘magical’ experience one encounters when engaged in what Hungarian psychology professorMihály Csíkszentmihályi calls Flow: a runner’s high, being immersed in a novel, any moment when your complete and total reality is present in one focused effort.

When musicians, athletes, actors and chess players describe being in Flow experiences, they claim the impetus for action was not consciously initiated. Their movements seem to flow like a river with no consciousness of how they were moving or acting. Neuroscientist and author Sam Harrissays, “This experience has been at the core of human spirituality for millennia.”

The tiny squirts of dopamine we receive when hearing the ding of a text message or seeing a snazzy headline taps into that same anticipatory neural system. If the content matches our expectations, we feel satisfied, and depending on how much it blows us away—Zach Galifianakis Says Everything You Want to Say to Justin Bieber Right to His Face is one great example—we can then feel inspired, outraged and a whole host of other emotions. This is the brilliance of Upworthy: tapping into our ancient neural networks of anticipation and gratification.

Image: Renata Apanaviciene/shutterstock.com

Fox vs. Hedgehog

Source: http://bigthink.com/experts-corner/beware-the-one-trick-hedgehog

Beware The One Trick Hedgehog

DECEMBER 9, 2013, 12:00 AM
Unnamed-1

There are two kinds of experts and we often don’t use them wisely. The differences between foxes and hedgehogs, and Newton and Darwin, can show when a diversified portfolio of experts is advisable. This year’s Nobel Prize committee in economics evidently agrees: It rewarded the apparently “opposing” theories of Eugene Fama (efficient markets) and Robert Shiller (animal spirits), which pit reason against passion.

Philip Tetlock did the relevant experiment, getting established experts to make 82,000 predictions about political and economic trends and tracking their accuracy. He found differences in thinking style that could predict who’d predict better. Tetlock classified experts using the aphorism “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.

Hedgehogs think the world follows simple rules, and prefer a grand unified theory. Convinced they possess the One True Theory, they confidently and zealously defend it. This encourages a closed mindset which is more prone to confirmation bias (squeezing evidence into the theory and discounting what doesn’t fit).

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Foxes believe the world is complex and distrust grand theories. They’re empirically driven, seek locally useful rules, and are open, cautious, eclectic thinkers tolerant of counter arguments. Unwedded to One True Theory they cope better with ambiguity, see the limits of their thinking tools, often qualify their opinions, and more readily adapt to new data.

Tetlock found that foxes fared better than hedgehogs, who barely beat “dart-throwing
chimps.”

Despite that hedgehogs hogged the spotlight. The media love their certain sounding sound bites and flamboyant forecasts. Sadly, the most quoted were the worst predictors and increased
confidence actually decreased accuracy.

Darwin’s greatest lesson applies: Fit to context is key. Hedgehog-experts are good in fields with stable behaviors and known rules. Otherwise, fox-experts are a better bet. This relates to how Newton differs from Darwin. Newton worked with unchanging behaviors. His laws can predict detailed outcomes in simple closed situations. But Darwin dealt with complex systems of changing parts and behaviors; he described the shape of open generative processes (note the cautious foxiness of that plural; “natural selection was the main but not the exclusive means” of evolution. These evolutionary processes have stable tendencies but less predictable specific outcomes.

The closer we get to humans and social sciences, the less Newton-like and hedgehoggy life gets. Economies, full of changing parts and innovative behaviors, need foxy thinking.

Aquinas famously feared “the man of a single book.” And we should be wary of experts with a single model. Models are hedgehog thinking incarnated. With assumptions built into their structure, they can create “model-risk.” Widespread use leads many to overlook the same issues. The dominance of Fama’s big idea possibly had this effect in the last financial
crisis
.

The more we rely on markets, the more important it is to use economic experts wisely. Market-loving hedgehogs tend to downplay the empirical problems of their beloved system. Fixed ideas are risky in a changing world; we’re predictably safer hearing also from market-realist foxes. So should we diversify or concentrate risks?

Illustration by Julia Suits, The New Yorker Cartoonist & author of The Extraordinary Catalog of Peculiar Inventions.

Service presses loved ones’ ashes as a playable vinyl record

Say no more…

http://www.springwise.com/service-presses-loved-ones-ashes-playable-vinyl-record/

Service presses loved ones’ ashes as a playable vinyl record

The UK’s And Vinyly is enabling the recently departed to have their ashes pressed as a vinyl record.

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United Kingdom 6th December 2013 in Weird of the Week.
This is part of a new series of articles that looks at some of the most bizarre and niche business ideas we see here at Springwise.

Remembering loved ones is a highly personal experience, and placing ashes into an urn can be too traditional for some. The first of our Weird of the Week series focused on Holy Smokes, a service that puts ashes into bullets. Now the UK’s And Vinyly is enabling the recently departed to have their ashes pressed as a vinyl record.

Founded by Jason Leach, who also runs a number of record labels such as Subhead, Daftwerk and Death to Vinyl, the service allows anyone to have a loved one’s ashes pressed as a working record, where it can be accompanied by music, the sound of their voice or simply left blank — allowing the pops and clicks to provide an audio representation of the ashes. The ashes are placed onto the raw piece of vinyl before it gets pressed, enabling the ashes to be compressed into the material. Each record comes with personalized artwork — either a simple name and date of birth and death, or a portrait by artist James Hague, who creates his images using ashes mixed into the paint. The GBP 2,000 package gets customers 30 discs with the sounds of their choice, or they can also have a Daftwerk artist record a song about the deceased.

While some may feel uncomfortable handling the ashes of their loved ones, others may cherish the opportunity to connect with them after they die through a very personal artifact. What other unusual ways are there to commemorate the dead?

Website: www.andvinyly.com

Spotted by Denise Kuperman, written by Springwise

Healthways…

http://www.healthways.com  || http://www.healthways.com.au

Christian Sellars from MSD put on a terrific dinner in Crows Nest, inviting a group of interesting people to come meet with his team, with no agenda:

  • Dr Paul Nicolarakis, former advisor to the Health Minister
  • Dr Linda Swan, CEO Healthways
  • Ian Corless, Business Development & Program Manager, Wentwest
  • Dr Kevin Cheng, Project Lead Diabetes Care Project
  • Dr Stephen Barnett, GP & University of Wollongong
  •  Warren Brooks, Customer Centricity Lead
  • Brendan Price, Pricing Manager
  • Wayne Sparks, I.T. Director
  • Greg Lyubomirsky, Director, New Commercial Initiatives
  • Christian Sellars, Director, Access 

MSD are doing interesting things in health. In Christian’s words, they are trying to uncouple their future from pills.

After some chair swapping, I managed to sit across from Linda Swan from Healthways. It was terrific. She’s a Stephen Leeder disciple, spent time at MSD, would have been an actuary if she didn’t do medicine, and has been on a search that sounds similar to mine.

Healthways do data-driven, full-body, full-community wellness.

They’re getting $100M multi-years contracts from PHIs.

Amazingly, they’ve incorporated social determinants of health into their framework.

And even more amazingly, they’ve been given Iowa to make healthier.

They terraform communities – the whole lot.

Linda believes their most powerful intervention is a 20min evidence-based phone questionnaire administered to patients on returning home, similar to what Shane Solomon was rolling out at the HKHA. But they also supplant junk food sponsorship of sport and lobby for improvements to footpaths etc.

Just terrific. We’re catching up for coffee in January.

Pollenizer’s Universal Pitch Deck – punchy, no faffing…

http://pollenizer.com/universal-startup-pitch-deck

  1. Hi, I’m….
    From….
  2. The problem we’re solving is…
  3. Our solution is…
  4. This is a big opportunity because…
  5. Our target market is…
  6. We will acquire customers by…
  7. We make money by…
  8. Our key competition is…
  9. We’re better because…
  10. Our team is…
  11. What we’ll do next is…
  12. Currently, we are seeking…
  13. To summarise…
  14. Thanks!

RWJF Webinar recording – Transparency in healthcare price, cost and quality

This hour long webinar brings together presenters from a recent RWJF conference of the same name.
Of note:
> 24m 30s: demonstration of a new app (closed beta) “Hospital Adviser Medicare Hip & Knee” developed by Consumer Reports (US equivalent of Choice Magazine) using publicly released de-identified cost CMS government data (if only in AU!!) – tip: don’t get your hip or knee done in NYC
> presentation by Castlight Health – US analytics business providing employees and employers personalised price & quality transparency for procedures/conditions/doctors
> The conference found that transparency is necessary but not sufficient to deliver improvements in care.

> 49m 25s: Value-based pricing – the benefit of the care, not its cost

> 50m: providers don’t have feedback on their own performance (let alone payers and patients) – when providers see their own price competitiveness, they adjust their prices

> 56m: Leapfrong asked how can transparency be applied to over-utilization of procedures? By feedback to providers.

MJA Insight: Hard choices – Will Cairns

  • We cannot continue on our current course without depriving other societal domains that are essential to the long-term wellbeing of our community, such as education, physical infrastructure, aged care, environmental protection, the arts and recreation
  • When we eventually do act we will realise that there are a limited number of ways to constrain the proportion of community resources expended on health care.

    One is for funders to pay less for the things that are done.

    The second, and perhaps the simplest, is to not do things that are of little or no benefit. We could also ensure that, when there is a choice, the less expensive options are used. This is primarily a task for doctors but everyone is responsible.

    The third is to make sure that people do not have treatment that they do not want. This merely supports the right of people to make a choice not to start or persist with treatment that will not bring them sufficient benefit in terms of a quantity of a life of quality as they define it. This also requires community acceptance that individuals have the right to make such choices.

While thoughtful medical practice, systemic support of the right to individual choice and improved efficiency can buy us some time they are unlikely to be sufficient.

Perhaps the complex ecology of gridlocked self-interest means that struggling health systems must collapse and fail before they can be rebuilt, and we will just have to watch while it happens.

Surely a better outcome would be to work towards spending only what we can afford. These are not simple issues and the process might begin with an open discussion of our community values and the goals of health care. The sooner we start that discussion the better.

From: https://www.mja.com.au/insight/2013/47/will-cairns-hard-choices

PYMWYMI App

Had this idea yesterday while thinking about TP’s birthday present.

Wouldn’t it be good if we could convert our respects or displeasures for public figures into something virtuous like goats for people in disadvantaged communities? A “put your money where your mouth is” app that could let anyone pledge any amount of money whenever a public figure either impressed or distressed them? On a regular basis, but at least annually, the public figure with the most respects would be recognised in the media, and be given the privilege of deciding where the money was directed. The most disrespected public figure could be sent to Nauru for a couple of weeks.

 

BMJ: Can behavioural economics make us healthy

  • BE policies are by design less coercive and more effective than traditional approaches
  • It is generally far more effective to punish than to reward
  • Sticks masquerading as carrots – simultaneous, zero-sum incentives and penalties
  • References to policies which have and have not worked – but why can’t policy be research?
  • Conventional economics can therefore justify regulatory interventions, such as targeted taxes and subsidies, only in situations in which an individual’s actions imposes costs on others—for example, second hand cigarette smoke. But the potential reach of behavioural economics is much greater. By recognising the prevalence of less than perfectly rational behaviour, behavioural economics points to a large category of situations in which policy intervention might be justified—those characterised by costs which people impose on themselves (internalities), such as the long term health consequences of smoking on smokers.
  •  Is it fair to say that in a universal health care system, any preventable ill health imposes costs on others, as it is the tax payer who picks up the cost of treatment?
  • present bias: the tendancy for decision makers tend to put too much weight on costs and benefits that are immediate and too little on those that are delayed. Present bias can be used to positive effect by providing small, frequent (i.e. immediate) payments for beneficial behaviours e.g. smoking cessation, medication adherence, weight loss
  • “peanuts effect” decision error: the tendency to pay too little attention to the small but cumulative consequences of repeated decisions, such as the effect on weightof repeated consumption of sugared beverages or the cumulative health effect of smoking.
  • competition and peer support are more powerful forms of behaviourally mediated interventions

Care of Nicholas Gruen.

PDF: CanBehaviouralEconomicsMakeUsHealthier_BMJ

Similarly in Health Affairs: http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/32/4/661.short