Not only do larger portions lead consumers to like the food they are eating less, they also reduce how often people consume those foods, according to the authors of a recent Carnegie Mellon University study.

“Although people often say they prefer larger portion sizes, especially for foods that they really like, our research indicates that consumption of larger portions can ultimately decrease the frequency at which these foods are consumed,” said Carey Morewedge, study co-author and associate professor of marketing at Carnegie Mellon’s Tepper School of Business. “This suggests people and companies may actually be better off with smaller portions. People will enjoy the food they eat more, and eat the foods they enjoy more often. Companies will benefit from more frequent repeat purchases.”

Large portions correlated to lower end liking levels

According to the “sensory-specific satiety” phenomenon, we enjoy each bite of a food or sip of a beverage less than the previous one. The more we eat or drink, the more satiety reduces how much we enjoy that food or beverage. Thus, consuming a larger portion means that we reduce our average enjoyment of the food or drink we consume.

For the study, published in a recent issue of Appetite, the researchers used two sets of experiments to determine the role of liking (emotional response to food) versus wanting (motivation or appetitive drive to eat) in the desired frequency of eating certain foods.

In Experiment 1, participants were given either a large or small portion of Lindor chocolate truffles. Those given the large portion condition reported significantly lower end liking than those with the small portion condition, and waited more days before repeating their consumption of chocolates.

Distraction can cloud the memory of enjoyment of food

In Experiment 2, in which some of the participants were asked to do arithmetic while eating crackers, those who were distracted while eating were not influenced as much by their enjoyment of the food to consume that food again as participants who were not distracted.

This suggests that distraction while eating (i.e., watching TV) can cloud the association that people develop when it comes to their enjoyment of food, which can alter their end-of-consumption liking for the food.

Moreover, like Experiment 1, participants in the second experiment who reported a lower end liking of crackers desired a longer delay in days before eating the crackers again.

“This research adds to the growing body of work on liking and wanting that shows that they are distinguishable constructs by showing that liking and wanting are not equally predictive of decisions regarding when to repeat consumption,” the authors wrote. “Specifically, we show that end liking, rather than end wanting, drives one’s decision of when to repeat a meal, demonstrating an additional means by which liking and wanting can be distinguished.”

Source: Appetite
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2013.09.025 
“Does liking or wanting affect repeat consumption delay?”
Authors: Emily N. Garbinsky, Carey K. Morewedge and Baba Shiv

It’s been a grim year in the carbonated soft drinks aisles for the sector’s three biggest guns, but will things look up in 2014? And will new all-natural sweeteners reverse the downward trend in the diet soda sector?

In a series of notes to investors released as Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo prepare to unveil their Q4 results, Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog said c-store retailers at least were convinced the answer to the second question is ‘NO’.

“Given the importance that many beverage companies have placed on an all-natural sweetener as a means to bring consumers back to the carbonated soft drinks (CSD) category, going so far as to describe it as the ‘holy grail’, we asked our convenience store retailers whether or not they believed that this would have a positive impact if and when it’s introduced,” she said.

“Our retailer contacts [representing 15,000+ c-stores across the country] almost universally believe that an all-natural sweetener “won’t bring many consumers back” to the CSD category as “the damage may already be done.”

One retailer told Wells Fargo: “Customer’s taste profiles/preferences have changed. As the group that was brought up on energy drinks gets older, carbonated soft drinks become less and less a part of their daily intake. This will eventually lead energy drinks to be a bigger part of the cold vault than CSD. In some areas, this has already occurred.

Another said: “Scary, units down in CSDs, seeing shift in drinking habits. Soft drink companies and contracts still trying to impose the old order, expect a big a shake-up if Q1 2014 looks anything like Q4 2013.”

Bad PR has not dented energy drink sales in c-stores

Meanwhile, despite all the negative PR surrounding energy drinks, c-store retailers remain bullish about their prospects, she said.

“Our survey respondents believe that this year’s growth of 12.4% is greater than a year prior (12.1%), which we believe is a strong signal of a long runway of growth for the category for years to come.”

And space allocated to energy drinks – particularly Monster – is increasing, she said: “While the energy category today only comprises approximately 20% of our retailers’ shelves, our retail contacts think that over time, there is an opportunity to expand the energy shelf space by 50% to over 30% of total c-store shelf space.”

Finally, SPARKLING ICE continues to go from strength to strength, she said, while many c-store retailers also predicted strong growth in teas, sports drinks and protein-based drinks.

Dr Pepper Snapple Group: Many retailers say they might de-list TEN in the spring

Drilling down to the top three players in the category, Herzog is forecasting that full year (2013) volumes at DPS will be down 2% on flat revenues.

Meanwhile, the viability of the TEN low-calorie range remains in question, she said: “We are increasingly fearful that TEN may follow in the footsteps of countless other brand extensions that fail to become meaningful brands. We can only hope at this point that DPS discontinues any further investment to promote the platform.”

We remain concerned about the ongoing deterioration of PepsiCo’s beverage business

PepsiCo, meanwhile, has seen “mixed results” as it has switched to an every-day-low-price (EDLP) pricing strategy in recent months, she claimed.

 “While we do believe that theoretically it is the right strategy, there has clearly been a negative impact on shares in measured channels.”

While recent launches Mountain Dew Kickstart and Frappuccino were  performing well, said Herzog, “We remain concerned about the ongoing deterioration of PepsiCo’s beverage business.”

While CEO Indra Nooyi has promised to announce ‘structural changes’ when she unveils the firm’s full year results on Feb 13, splitting the business down the middle was probably not on the agenda, however, Herzog predicted.

We don’t expect Senomyx to have an FDA approved, all-natural sweetener prior to at least 2015

But what about PepsiCo’s work on new sweeteners and sweet flavor modifiers?

San-Diego-based Senomyx has gone public about its tie up with PepsiCo on sweet taste modifier S617 and indicated that the first products from its collaboration will be commercialized this year contingent upon a GRAS (Generally Recognized As Safe) determination for S617.

However, progress on new all-natural high intensity sweeteners (which Senomyx is also looking at) is slower, said Herzog.

“We recently met with management from Senomyx… While Senomyx has several promising compounds that could offer sweetener solutions soon, and has made significant progress in an all-natural sweetener, we don’t expect Senomyx to have an FDA approved, all-natural sweetener prior to at least 2015.

“While we acknowledge that PepsiCo may source an all-natural sweetener from another company, or potentially develop it in house, we think Senomyx offers a good indication of the overall industry’s progress.”

Coca-Cola: We believe Coca-Cola has been increasing its prices on CSDs

At Coca-Cola, Herzog is forecasting volumes will be up 2% in 2013 with currency-neutral revenue growth of 1.9% when it unveils its results on February 18.

As for carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), said Herzog, “We believe Coca-Cola has been increasing its prices on CSDs but not on its still beverages as it continues to manage its business ‘for profits over sales in CSDs’.”

Natural sweeteners

While stevia is used in scores of high-profile brands from Sprite Select to Vitamin Water Zero, the only top-tier cola brands containing it are the Australian formulation of Pepsi Next, which has 30% less sugar; and Coca-Cola Life, which has 50% less sugar, and debuted in Argentina last year.

Neither Coke nor Pepsi has yet launched a zero calorie cola with stevia, however.

Speaking to FoodNavigator-USA last year, Jonas Feliciano, beverages analyst at Euromonitor International, said finding a natural sweetener that performs well in diet carbonates is not a panacea: “I just don’t think we’re going to see people drinking the volumes of Diet Coke or Pepsi that they used to, even if they reformulate. 

“The idea that carbonates can win back all the market share they are losing just by reformulating with natural sweeteners I think is missing the mark.”

Other commentators say the issue is not with the sweeteners, but the brands, pointing out that lightly carbonated Sparkling Ice has artificial sweeteners (sucralose), but is doing really well (click here ); while zero-cal carbonated soft drinks brand Zevia uses natural sweeteners (stevia and monk fruit) and is also doing really well (click here ).