Category Archives: policy

OECD: Health at a Glance 2013

  • one of the highest life expectancies at birth of 82 years (2 years above the average)
  • top five cancer survival rates
  • top five AMI survival rates
  • 8.9% health spend on GDP (OECD average: 9.3%)
  • top three in rates of obesity – 28.3% (US – 36.5%; Mexico – 32.4%; NZ – 28.4%; UK – 24.8%)
  • comparatively high rates of adverse events in hospitals – 8.6 per 100,000 (OECD average – 5)
  • pressure on training pipeline, and eventually, health system financing

Medical Observer Summary:

  • Use of cholesterol-lowering drugs: 1st, 50% above OECD avg
  • Use of antihypertensives: 21st, 30% below OECD average
  • Fatality within 30 days of acute MI: 5th lowest, 60% below OECD avg
  • Use of antidepressants: 2nd, 59% above OECD avg
  • Antibiotic prescribing in primary care: 8th, 17% above OECD avg
  • Pharmaceutical expenditure per capita: 9th, 21% above OECD avg
  • Remuneration of specialists: 3rd, 4.3 ratio to average wage
  • Remuneration of GPs: 18th, 1.7 ratio to average wage

 

AU Media Release (PDF): Health-at-a-Glance-2013-Press-Release-Australia

OECD Report (PDF): Health-at-a-Glance-2013

Charts (PDF): Health-at-a-Glance-2013-Chart-set

OECD Source: http://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/health-at-a-glance.htm

SMH (PDF): OECD says Australians take too many pills and must tackle nation’s obesity problem

Katz slam dunks….

  • Used the Harvard Nurses Health Study to develop an algorithm for food healthiness as determined by health outcomes from the study – a GPS for nutrition – CLEVER!
  • Offered to do this with Government in the early 2000s but was knocked back
  • Developed a proprietary algorithm called ONQI, owned by NuVal
  • Choosing higher scoring foods correlates with a lower risk of dying prematurely.
  • “The very government agencies that regulate the food supply are extensively entangled with the entities producing our food, from farm to factory. In comparison, we mere eaters of food have very little clout. The government may be just a little too conflicted on the topic of food to be in the business of putting the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth on at-a-glance display.
    Certainly the big food manufacturers, the makers of glow-in-the-dark snackattackables, should NOT be in the business of nutrition guidance whatever their inclination. That approach makes the fox look like a highly qualified security officer for the henhouse.
    Which leaves independent nutrition, and public health experts and private sector innovation. And here we are.
    Private-sector innovation often involves intellectual property, trade secrets and patent applications. It involves some entity making an investment and wanting a return. That is all true of NuVal, for better or worse. It wasn’t my plan – it was just the only way to get this empowering system into the hands of shoppers. Of note, the ONQI remains under the independent control of scientists, and not the business.”
  • This is a terrific strategy – worthy of emulation.

Source: http://health.usnews.com/health-news/blogs/eat-run/2013/06/11/nutrition-guidance-who-needs-to-know-what

Nutrition Guidance: Who Needs to Know What?

  June 11, 2013 

I am writing today about nutrition guidance and who needs to know what to make it useful.

Permit me to disclose right away that I am the principal inventor of the Overall Nutritional Quality Index (ONQI) algorithm, used in NuVal – a nutritional guidance system that stratifies foods from 1 to 100 on the basis of overall nutritional quality: the higher the number, the more nutritious the food. As the Chief Science Officer for NuVal, LLC, I am compensated for my continuous and considerable allocations of time and effort. But it was never supposed to be that way – and the reasons why it is are an important part of this story.

As to why this column now, there are two recent provocations. One is our ongoing work to complete the updated algorithm, ONQI 2.0, and the window that provides into a world of weirder foods than I ever even considered possible. The other is a paper published in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics a few months back and a more recent exchange of letters related to that article. The article described the advantageous novelties of a nutritional profiling system, such as weighting nutrients for their health effects rather than counting them all the same. But this was less about novelty, and more about NuVal, since the innovations described have long been included in the ONQI.

[See: Debunking Common Nutrition Myths.]

Claims about alleged novelties that were already included in NuVal prompted a letter from my colleagues and me to the journal, which was published along with a response from the original authors. In that response, they acknowledged that the NuVal system included the so-called “novelties” and acknowledged that the ONQI is, to date, the only nutritional profiling system shown to correlate directly with health outcomes. So the real concern, the letter went on, is that the ONQI algorithm is proprietary and the details are not fully in the public domain.

Which brings us back to why NuVal is a private and proprietary system in the first place and whether or not it matters that certain details of the algorithm – which populate 25 pages or so of computer code written in a language called SAS – are not on a billboard. Why isn’t the ONQI public rather than private, and who really needs to know every detail of the algorithm for it to be useful? (All of the nutrients included in it, and the basic approaches used to generate scores, have been published.)

The ONQI, and NuVal, are a private sector innovation because the public sector said: no thanks. In 2003, I was privileged to be a member of a group of 15 academics invited to Washington, D.C. by then-Secretary of Health Tommy Thompson. A Food and Drug Administration task force had been formed to guide efforts related to the control of rampant obesity and diabetes, and we were a part of that effort. We gathered in a conference room with Secretary Thompson, the FDA Commissioner (Mark McClellan) and others, including the surgeon general and the heads of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

[See: Why Aren’t Americans Healthier?]

We were each given one three-minute turn to offer up one good idea the FDA and other federal agencies might use to help combat the ominoustrends in diabetes and obesity. I used my turn to describe, in essence, the project that later became the ONQI. I suggested that the secretary might convene a totally independent group of top-notch experts in nutrition and public health, perhaps under the auspices of the Institute of Medicine.

The group should have no political or industry entanglements and should be allowed to work for as long as it took to convert the best available nutrition science and knowledge into a guidance system anyone could understand at a glance. I was thinking, in essence, of the equivalent of GPS for nutrition, so that no one trying to identify a better food in any given category would get lost, confused or misled by Madison Avenue.

[See: 10 Things the Food Industry Doesn’t Want You to Know.]

I waited two years for the feds to do something along these lines. When they didn’t, I decided to undertake the project myself, with the backing of Griffin Hospital in Derby, Conn. – a Yale-affiliated, not-for-profit community hospital, which owns the ONQI algorithm to this day. Other than this being a private rather than federal endeavor, all other aspects of the project were just as proposed to the U.S. Secretary of Health. When we completed the algorithm, I offered it again to the FDA. A scientist at the agency recommended a private-sector approach if I hoped to live long enough to see the system do its intended good.

Why didn’t the feds take on the project? We can all conjecture. I suspect it has something to do with the story Marion Nestle told us all in Food Politics, and the stories we routinely hear about the Farm Bill from the likes of Michael PollanMark Bittman and others. The very government agencies that regulate the food supply are extensively entangled with the entities producing our food, from farm to factory. In comparison, we mere eaters of food have very little clout. The government may be just a little too conflicted on the topic of food to be in the business of putting the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth on at-a-glance display.

[See: Seeking a More Perfect Food Supply.]

Certainly the big food manufacturers, the makers of glow-in-the-dark snackattackables, should NOT be in the business of nutrition guidance whatever their inclination. That approach makes the fox look like a highly qualified security officer for the henhouse.

Which leaves independent nutrition, and public health experts and private sector innovation. And here we are.

Private-sector innovation often involves intellectual property, trade secrets and patent applications. It involves some entity making an investment and wanting a return. That is all true of NuVal, for better or worse. It wasn’t my plan – it was just the only way to get this empowering system into the hands of shoppers. Of note, the ONQI remains under the independent control of scientists, and not the business.

[See: Mastering the Art of Food Shopping.]

Which leads us back to the second question: Is it a problem for a system like this to be a private-sector innovation? Who, really, needs to know every detail of such an algorithm?

Consider that if you are shopping for a car, you do need to know if it comes with anti-lock brakes or all-wheel drive. But to decide if these are working for you, you don’t need engineering blueprints; you just need to drive in the snow. When shopping for a smartphone, you may want to know if it has GPS. But you don’t need the trigonometry equations on which the GPS is based to determine if it works; you just have to see if it helps you get where you want to go.

Nutrition guidance in general, and NuVal in particular, are just the same. What are the exact formula details? Who cares. We routinely rely on tools based on math and engineering most of us don’t understand – but we don’t need all that input to know if the tools are working for us. We just need the output. We need to be able to use them. People using NuVal have lost more than 100 pounds, and even over 200 pounds. Choosing higher scoring foods correlates with a lower risk of dying prematurely. More than 100,000 scores are on public display in 1,700 supermarkets nationwide. The ONQI is at least as transparent as any car or smartphone or computer.

[See: The No. 1 Skill for Weight Management.]

Let’s acknowledge: If you are reading this on a computer screen, neither of us truly understands the engineering involved in me writing it, using word processing software, attaching it to an email and sending it to my editor at U.S. News & World Report so she could post it in cyberspace, where you found it. But we do know it worked.

We rely on private-sector innovation for a lot of important jobs, and even many that put our safety on the line. The private sector makes our cars and planes. We seem to be comfortable using these without scrutinizing patent applications. The private sector makes our computers, and smartphones and GPS systems, and we can tell whether or not these work, even if we don’t know how.

Why, then, is nutrition guidance different? The answer, I believe, is politics, profits and the inertia of the status quo. We are accustomed to vague nutrition guidance from conflicted sources, and those same sources are apt to imply there is something wrong with private-sector innovation and the intellectual property issues that come along with it. But if those issues don’t undermine the cars, and planes and navigation systems that get us from city to city and coast to coast, it’s not at all clear why they should be a problem when navigating among choices in a supermarket aisle.

[See: The Government’s MyPlate Celebrates Second Birthday.]

As a scientist, and not a businessperson, my preference would be to put the ONQI on a billboard for all the good it would do. But on this, I must defer to the businesspeople who have made the relevant investments and are entitled to safeguard potential returns. As for the scrutiny that all advanced systems should get, the ONQI has been shared with scientists at leading universities and health agencies around the world – but for private assessment and use rather than public display. Others like them who want to review the program need only ask.

We should all care that the military-industrial establishment seems opposed to putting the blunt truth about nutritional quality, as best we know it, on at-a-glance display. We should care that federal authorities responsible for nutrition guidance are also responsible, if only indirectly, for food politics and supply-side profits. That story may lack novelty. It may be old news. But it is nonetheless something everyone who eats does need to know – engineering blueprints not required.

China’s plans universal health care by 2020

China is expanding its health care system and aiming for universal coverage for its 1.35 billion citizens by 2020. The report estimates that the country alone will make up 34% of the global growth in medication spending over the next five years.

Source: http://healthland.time.com/2013/11/19/why-were-spending-1-trillion-on-health-medications/

Report PDF: IIHI_Global_Use_of_Meds_Report_2013

Because in health, less is more…

When we look back at contemporary health systems 50 years from now, we will consider them to be an technologically indulgent folly of grand proportions, driven by an imperative to deliver more and more complex care in order to justify higher and higher costs.

In a fee-for-service context, elaborate technologies justify higher costs. An elective angiogram costs $25,000. If this had to be paid by individuals, there would be no interest in conducting them with the frequency that they are performed today.

Perhaps this is why Singapore, with its health savings accounts with health costing around 4% of GDP (achieving the same high outcomes of Australia), lacks the excesses of more universal health systems?

The use of bariatric surgery for obesity is perhaps the most egregious example of this phenomenon. A AU$20,000 – 30,000 procedure is now introducing moral hazard that will undermine attempts to introduce behavioural and lifestyle change i.e. “Why bother changing my lifestyle when I can simply get a lap band to fix me later?”

Pharmaceutical companies are also using this play book with the introduction of their new, highly-specialised, so-called “biologics” to the market, particularly in the cancer area. They are often protein based and extremely difficult to manufacture, but are also very targeted. Funders are responding to this threat with value-based payment schemes where by the drug company only gets paid if the treatment succeeds.

Current health market settings establish this perverse incentive. Moves to value/outcomes-based care will remedy these perversities, providing incentives for activities that reduce care costs. In such an environment, the cheapest interventions also become the most profitable.

Home delivered broccoli instead of lap-bands.

CBT SMS’s instead of SSRIs and psychotherapy.

A rapid learning health system instead of a profit yearning sickness market.

 

Forbes: Curing Type 2 Diabetes with Surgery: It Works — Now Let’s Figure Out Why

  • Insulin resistance stabilises ahead of weight loss in gastric bypass surgery
  • Insulin resistance tracks with weight loss in lap band surgery
  • No one knows why, though some pharma start ups are looking for a molecule
  • A great example of empiricism triumphing over reductionism

PN: This still leaves the door open to the solid food hypothesis

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidshaywitz/2012/03/26/curing-diabetes-with-surgery-it-works-now-lets-figure-out-why/

3/26/2012 @ 11:59PM |29,806 views

Curing Type 2 Diabetes with Surgery: It Works — Now Let’s Figure Out Why

During my endocrinology training, I was captivated by a phenomenon I’d seen on the wards, and had just started to read about in the literature: type 2 diabetic patients receiving bariatric surgery exhibiting rapid, seemingly instantaneous improvements in their glycemic control, apparently related to profoundly reduced insulin resistance as a consequence of the surgery.

The first teaching seminar I gave as a fellow, at Endocrinology Grand Rounds, asked the distinguished medical faculty who gathered in the Ether Dome, “Is Diabetes a Surgical Disease?”

At the time, the answer was, “Yes?”  Now, two recent reports presented today at the ACC, and simultaneously published in the NEJM (here and here), seem to upgrade this answer to “Yes!”

Both reports conclude that bariatric surgery surpasses medical therapy as a treatment for type 2 diabetes, and are fascinating not only because of the immediate clinical implications (as discussed by Matt Herper here, and in anNEJM editorial comment here), but also because there’s some really cool underlying science that nobody seems to understand.

The fundamental paradox is the same mysterious clinical phenomenon that so intrigued me years ago: the drastic improvement in diabetic function that occurs significantly before most of the weight is lost.

The authors of the first study note, “Reductions in the use of diabetes medications occurred before achievement of maximal weight loss, which supports the concept that the mechanisms of improvement in diabetes involve physiologic effects in addition to weight loss, probably related to alterations in gut hormones.”

The authors of the second study were also struck by the rapid improvement in glycemic control they observed, reporting that all patients treated surgically were able to discontinue all their diabetes medicines within fifteen days of their operation – a remarkable result (and entirely consistent with my own clinical experience).  Almost all of the surgically-treated patients remained free of diabetes after two years, while none of the medically-treated patients were as fortunate.

As the authors write, “there was no correlation between normalization of fasting glucose levels and weight loss after gastric bypass and biliopancreatic diversion, findings that are consistent with results of previous studies, which suggests that such surgeries may exert effects on diabetes that are independent of weight.”

The authors also point out this result is in contrast with gastric banding procedures (which constrict the stomach but don’t otherwise alter the anatomy); the improvement in diabetes seen in those patients does appear to correlate more directly with weight loss.

The intriguing scientific question is how can bariatric surgery result in an almost immediate improvement in the insulin resistance profile of diabetic patients?  To my mind, this is among the most important unanswered questions in endocrinology, and medical science more generally.  While the effect is generally attributed to “gut hormones” (as the authors of the first study write), the biology beyond that gets a bit murky.

To be sure, some companies are working on it – the example that springs first to mind is NGM Biopharmaceuticals, a small Bay-area biotech (with which I have no personal nor professional connection) founded in 2008 as an ambitious science play by The Column Group, Rho Ventures, and Prospect Venture Partners.  I’m sure others are working on this challenge as well.

A final point – as attracted as we are to the view of basic science driving clinical medicine, the experience with gastric bypass surgery arguably exemplifies the reverse, and represents a triumph of empiricism, as well as a reminder of the value of human physiology (see here), and more generally, the importance of studying people (and not just parts of people).

It also would not be the first (nor will it be the last) time that medical sophisticates learned a valuable lessons from those laboring – often, as in the case of many bariatric surgeons, with inadequate respect – on the front lines of patient care.

This article is available online at: 

The brutal view from medicine’s front line…

  • despite the noise regarding safety, quality and health reform, and in particular payment reform from fee-for-service to value-based-payment, the truth is that practically all providers and provider organisations are simply focused on one thing: MAXIMIZING REVENUE
  • It’s fun to read about cool technology, big data, and innovation incentives, but the reality is that in the trenches, many (I’d say most) providers and provider groups feel that they are locked in a deadly battle with payors (and increasingly, other providers) for their livelihoods; many feel they are having to work harder and harder to bring in the same (or less) money then doctors a generation ago. 
  • Many feel that the profession has lost the autonomy and respect it used to enjoy, and that providers are now viewed as mechanized assembly line workers, held to strict quantitative “quality” metrics that rarely capture the complexity, or essence, of the patient experience.

 

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidshaywitz/2013/11/12/the-brutal-view-from-medicines-front-lines/

The Brutal View From Medicine’s Front Lines

Health policy discussion these days focuses extensively on the idea that medicine is changing, moving (maybe slowly, maybe rapidly) from a fee-for-service to a fee-for-value world, where providers and hospitals own risk, and are incentivized to reduce costs and improve care, a win-win situation for all.
It’s possible such change is happening – somewhere, or in some parts of some organizations.Yet, most providers with whom I’ve been speaking tell a starkly different story.  The view from the front lines suggests that hospitals and care delivery systems are obsessing like never before on doing whatever they possibly can to maximize their revenue.  They are consumed, utterly consumed, by this objective.

It’s touching to read accounts from Ashish Jha and others describing benevolent CEOs concerned about patient care and safety; the hospital executives I’ve been hearing about tend to talk a good game about safety, and may even genuinely care about quality, but they are focused on, driven by, and hired for their skill at maximizing revenue – a prime directive that quickly percolates its way through the entire care system.

I know of examples at non-academic centers where doctors are refusing to see patients who don’t carry “good” insurance, citing miserable rates of reimbursement – rates they point out can be lower (sometime much lower) than what professional trainers often make.

At academic centers, publishing papers is certainly encouraged, but making your “RVUs” (i.e. seeing enough patients) is prioritized – and failing to do so can get you canned.

Hospital records are routinely reviewed in detail to ensure every opportunity for “revenue capture” has been identified.

The reason to highlight what seems to me the current state of medicine (and yes, this is anecdotal, but I suspect that if anything, this description understates the magnitude of the situation) isn’t so much to critique it as to surface it, and remind readers what healthcare actually looks like today — a reality that seems far more Hobbesian than what’s often imagined, presented, and discussed.

It’s fun to read about cool technology, big data, and innovation incentives, but the reality is that in the trenches, many (I’d say most) providers and provider groups feel that they are locked in a deadly battle with payors (and increasingly, other providers) for their livelihoods; many feel they are having to work harder and harder to bring in the same (or less) money then doctors a generation ago.  Many feel that the profession has lost the autonomy and respect it used to enjoy, and that providers are now viewed as mechanized assembly line workers, held to strict quantitative “quality” metrics that rarely capture the complexity, or essence, of the patient experience.

It’s hard to envision this is sustainable – you can only increase the speed of the treadmill so much.

Rather, the question is what comes next for medicine – how will care be delivered, and who will be delivering it?

BBC Horizon: The Truth About Fat

Yet another BBC documentary on obesity, this time featuring an emaciated looking surgeon who specialises in removing skin lesions. It was an excellent exposition of how broken and inappropriate it is to apply a reductionist, scientific lens to a problem of this kind.

A bunch of Imperial College scientists banging on about grellin and PPY and twin studies and epigenetics and fMRI and finishing up with a mandatory reference to bariatric surgery as the only successful intervention that actually changes the way your mind thinks about food.

If only there was a more expensive and complicated way to intervene?

Are we going to get to the point where bariatric surgery becomes a standard procedure, like desexing a dog?

The more of these programs I watch, the more distasteful and disappointing they seem.

If the end goal is to stop people eating crap, and also feel fuller quicker, then there has to be a better, more positive, less invasive way to achieve this than with surgery or a pill.

 

 

Program Site: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01dzfgb
Video Source: http://vimeo.com/64960883

 

NYT: GE pursuing medical home in the US to contain costs…

  • GE are using their market power to experiment with different health care delivery
  • Pushing strongly for the introduction of medical homes
  • Early results are promising: patients enrolled in medical homes had 3.5 percent fewer visits to the emergency room and 14 percent fewer hospital admissions over the four years from 2008 through 2012
As Some Companies Turn to Health Exchanges, G.E. Seeks a New Path

CINCINNATI — Although the new federal health care law is designed to help people buying individual policies, even people with employer-provided policies are beginning to see changes in their coverage as companies rethink health care for their workers, discontinuing it in a few cases and redesigning it in many others.

They are motivated by a need to rein in health care costs, which continue to rise faster than overall inflation, but the federal health care law is also changing how some view their obligations to their employees.

Some major firms, like Walgreen, the drugstore chain, are giving those who qualify money to buy insurance on a private health exchange. Aon Hewitt, a benefits consultant that will oversee health plans on Walgreen’s behalf, said 18 large employers had signed up so far, including Sears and Darden Restaurants.

But here in Cincinnati, General Electric is taking the opposite approach.

One of the largest employers in the nation, it spends more than $2 billion a year offering coverage to 500,000 employees and retirees and their families. And it is using its considerable clout in places like this — where its giant aviation business gives it a major presence — to work directly with doctors and hospitals to improve care and reduce costs.

“I don’t know anybody who isn’t trying almost everything,” said Helen Darling, president of the National Business Group on Health, which represents employers providing benefits. “We’re going to see a lot of activity in the next couple of years.”

Over the last few years, G.E. has pushed for the creation of so-called medical homes, in which an individual medical practice closely coordinates a patient’s care by having access to all of the patient’s medical records.

In Cincinnati, about 118 doctors’ practices have converted to medical homes, and all five of the major health systems are making their primary care practices move in that direction. G.E. has also pushed for greater transparency of results.

“If we don’t take accountability ourselves for figuring this out, we’re part of the problem,” said Sue Siegel, a senior executive at G.E., who sees transformation of health care both as a business opportunity and a business necessity.

“We have to be involved in the solution,” she said. “We can’t just wait for someone to tell us that it is going to be fixed.”

What distinguishes the effort by G.E. is its direct focus on hospitals and doctors. Companies looking to the private exchanges are largely hoping to save money and want to be freed from the headache of administering health benefits.

In Walgreen’s case, the company says it doesn’t plan to lower its share of its workers’ health care costs but hopes to foster more competition among insurers, leading to better prices and more choice for employees.

In Cincinnati, G.E. took on both a cheerleading and coordinating role. In early 2010, Jeffrey R. Immelt, its chief executive, addressed local business leaders and urged them to think strategically and align their efforts to make more of a difference. There were already significant efforts under way to foster medical homes, for example, and G.E. pushed to find more financing to expand the concept to more medical practices and keep the focus on that initiative.

“The ever-present vigilance of the employers help nudge things along,” said Craig Brammer, chief executive of three area health care coalitions, including the Greater Cincinnati Health Council, which is made up of the area’s hospitals, health plans and employers.

The city’s health systems say they recognize that insurers and employers are increasingly going to reward them for better tracking their patients in and out of the hospital. “We are clearly gearing up to change directions from fee for service for what I’ll call payment for value,” said Will Groneman, an executive vice president for TriHealth, one of the systems.

The medical home also appears to resonate with employees. When Mary Farris, a 44-year-old marketing executive for G.E., found herself going to a local urgent care center because she could never get an appointment with her physician, she switched to a practice that had become a medical home.

What strikes Ms. Farris was how much time the doctor and medical assistant spent gathering her medical history and making sure there weren’t additional medical issues. While she came in for a spider bite, the focus was on her well-being as a working mother whose father was seriously ill at the time. “The picture was more on all of me as opposed to one isolated incident,” she said. “Somebody was trying to connect the dots.”

In Cincinnati, there are beginning to be grudging signs of success. Early results are promising: patients enrolled in medical homes had 3.5 percent fewer visits to the emergency room and 14 percent fewer hospital admissions over the four years from 2008 through 2012. G.E. plans to ask an outside firm to do a more detailed analysis.

But employers looking to adapt a similar strategy will find “it’s hard to do,” said David Lansky, the chief executive of the Pacific Business Group on Health, which represents West Coast employers. While “the opportunity is significant,” he said, companies may not have the time or resources to work in too many of their locations, with different hospitals and health plans in each market.

Some companies — Trader Joe’s for example — decided to send at least some employees to the new public exchanges. Trader Joe’s has left coverage for three-quarters of its work force untouched but is giving part-time workers a contribution of $500 to buy policies in the newly created state marketplaces. Because of the employees’ low incomes, the company says it believes many will be eligible for federal subsidies to help them afford coverage.

But a few major employers are taking even more aggressive stances and are trying to reshape how health care is delivered in this country.

They are increasingly looking to make direct connections with health systems, particularly well-regarded institutions that can deliver good care for what can be very expensive back or heart problems. G.E. recently signed an agreement with Hospital for Special Surgery in New York, a high-volume orthopedic hospital, to oversee the care of some employees getting hip and knee replacements. Last year, Walmart contracted with health systems like the Cleveland Clinic, Mayo and Geisinger, among others, to take care of employees who need transplants, heart and spine care. The company says it will soon expand the program to other centers of excellence.

The decision doesn’t always sit well with the home team. In Cincinnati, the UC Health System, which includes an academic medical center that also serves the area’s major source of care for the uninsured, says it would welcome a similar opportunity to provide joint replacements for G.E., but executives say they simply cannot afford to offer significant discounts. “We don’t have the resources to cut deals,” said Dr. Myles Pensak, an executive for UC Health.

G.E. is unapologetic. The company says it will continue to try a variety of approaches until it finds a way to tame health care costs even more than the annual growth rate achieved so far of under 3 percent. “You’ll see many, many experiments across the board,” Ms. Seigel said.

The inevitable evolution of medical care delivery…

  • medicine is an information intensive industry
  • HIT uptake is growing rapidly due to policy incentives
  • Healthcare looks similar to the retail sector from the 1980s
  • Retail worker productivity grew 4% per year since 1995
  • The biggest changes are likely to come from re-imagining the role of the patient – the single most underused person in healthcare, currently considered as close to a nuisance
  • Health care will be less frustrating when the power shifts from sellers to buyers
  • The Institute of Medicine suggests that inappropriate care, lack of adequate prevention, administrative waste, and prices that are too high account for nearly one-third of medical spending. Just the billing and collection operations in health care account for 25 percent of total costs; Walmart and Amazon spend an order of magnitude less on administration. Prices have fallen across the board in the retail sector.

Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/518906/why-medicine-will-be-more-like-walmart/

Why Medicine Will Be More Like Walmart

What health care will look like after the information technology revolution.

The idea that technology will change medicine is as old as the electronic computer itself. Actually, even older. In 1945, Vannevar Bush, the man with the vision for the National Institutes of Health, foresaw a Memex computer program that would allow access to past books and records. A lone physician searching for a diagnosis in far-flung case histories was one of the applications Bush imagined.

Medicine is an information intensive industry. Yet there’s still no medical Memex. Even though the Internet teems with health information, study after study shows that medical care often differs greatly from what the guidelines say—when there are guidelines. Doctors frequently rely on their own experience, rather than the experience of millions of patients who have seen thousands of doctors. Not only is the past lost, the present is missing. How many times has a patient received a drug that causes an allergic reaction, just because that information is not available at the time it is needed?

Bit by bit, this situation is changing. The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (aka the stimulus bill), created the HiTech program, which allocates billions of dollars for doctors and hospitals to buy electronic health records systems. Since the program was enacted, rates of ownership of such systems have tripled among hospitals and quadrupled among physicians. In just a few years, it is reasonable to think that the entire medical system will be wired.

What will happen then? The introduction of information technology into the core operations of hospitals and doctors’ offices is likely to make health care much more like the retail sector or financial services. Health care will be provided by big institutions, in a more standardized fashion, with less overall cost, but less of a personal touch.

medicine Walmart chart

Health care today looks a lot like the retail sector did in the early 1980s, when clothes and household products were sold by many local stores and small chains. Quality was haphazard, prices were higher, and buyers’ experiences were mixed. Consumers had only the information they could see in the store or the Sunday paper.

Retail firms got larger when information technology became widespread. Walmart replaced the corner drug store and Amazon put the local book shop out of business because large firms can use information technology better than small ones—to manage inventories, create consistency, automate routine activities, and lower prices. Output per worker grew over 4 percent annually in the retail sector since 1995. Output per worker has fallen in health care over the same time period.

When the medical Memex finally arrives, look for health care to follow the retail track. The solo practitioner is likely to be the first to go. He or she will have to decide whether to try to become an IT manager as well as a doctor, or join a larger group of doctors. For most, the choice will be easy. The chance that a doctor over 65 works alone or in a two-person practice is about 40 percent. For young doctors, it’s less than 5 percent.

Small hospitals will suffer the same fate. Already, small hospitals that have seen the price tag of medical records systems—$20 million or more to purchase, then millions to maintain—are seeking shelter in the arms of their big neighbors. I suspect most cities will go from 10 to 15 independent institutions a decade ago to three to five large health-care systems a decade hence. These systems will do everything: checkups, nursing the elderly, treating heart failure, and dispensing allergy pills.

Who treats us, and where, will change as well. With an electronic backbone in place, one doesn’t need to see a doctor for every issue. There is little the primary care doctor does that can’t—and increasingly isn’t—being done by a nurse practitioner, perhaps at a clinic in a Walmart or CVS. Routine prescriptions for medication refills can be handled online, with an electronic doctor watching. Even high-end services can be spread widely, with specialized centers coördinating the treatment of patients far from its walls.

medicine Walmart chart

The biggest changes are likely to come from reimagining the role of the patient—the single most underused person in health care. Today, patients are thought of as close to a nuisance (“I told him to take his pills …”). But imagine that the patient was a participant and contributor to the medical Memex. Blood-pressure cuffs can be in the house of every person with high blood pressure; the daily pressure would be transmitted to the doctor’s electronic record and monitored by a computer for outlying values. Decision-support software might allow people with localized cancer to choose between surgery, radiation, and watchful waiting—decisions which are, today, heavily influenced by doctors (and none too objectively).

Information technology is going to change the game because it will affect how people view themselves, their illness, and the people who care for them. Amazon’s loyalty comes in no small part because it uses our past searches and the searches of people like us to predict what we will want. The customer is part of Amazon’s Memex. Health care will be less frustrating when the power shifts from sellers to buyers, and when patients are more in charge.

Some worry that a health-care system that’s concentrated like retail will drive up costs. But it’s also true that organizational changes are easier when more doctors work together in one system. According to the Institute of Medicine, inappropriate care, lack of adequate prevention, administrative waste, and prices that are too high account for nearly one-third of medical spending. Just the billing and collection operations in health care account for 25 percent of total costs; Walmart and Amazon spend an order of magnitude less on administration. Prices have fallen across the board in the retail sector.

Norman Rockwell’s classic painting, “Doctor and the Doll,” is memorable for how the doctor is comforting the little girl by listening to her doll’s heart. Norman Rockwell’s doctor knew everything about the girl and her family. The doctor of the future will not. Rather than being a living electronic record consulting an internal Memex, tomorrow’s doctor will be there to direct patients to the right specialized resources, to reassure those in need, and to comfort the terminally ill. This life may not be as exciting as the surgeons or diagnostic sleuths one sees on TV, but it is a noble calling nonetheless.

David Cutler is the Otto Eckstein Professor of Applied Economics at Harvard University and author of the forthcoming, The Quality Cure: How Focusing on Health Care Quality Can Save Your Life and Lower Spending Too.