Category Archives: musings

The gist of my concerns…

Post-change makers festival closing event, here’s a first go at capturing my main beefs with the health system – a little rough around the edges but captures the gist:

 

  Appearance Reality Vision
Mission Brittle health system Bankrupt sickness market Sustainable learning wellness market
Universality Universal healthcare Safety net + PHI Universal
Payment Fee for care Fee for activity Fee for outcomes
Leadership Run by experts Run by amateurs Run by the finest minds
Levers Doctors in hospitals prescribing pharmaceuticals and performing procedures Unmanaged social determinants with doctors spruiking pills and procedures Actively managed social determinants featuring broccoli magnates

That said, and given the issues and concerns we discussed, I suspect some (if not all) of what needs to happen, has to happen alongside or entirely outside the existing system. Hmm.

I just returned from the closing event for this: http://changemakersfestival.org/

I didn’t have a chance to properly speak with Jenny about our discussion, but got the impression that there simply wasn’t the kind of support for think tanks here that existed overseas.

That said, I did have a reasonable chat with Nicholas Gruen – an very interesting economist and thinker – and suspect there may be an alternate angle to pursue… will keep you posted.

What REALLY Kills Us

Terrific Daniel Katz piece on LinkedIn on the actual causes of death.

Heart disease, cancer, stroke and diabetes are not causes, they are diseases.

The 1993 JAMA article “Actual Causes of Death” lays it out, and the top three causes of premature death, which account for 80% of the risk, are:

  1. tobacco
  2. diet
  3. exercise

Population-based research published in 2009 showed that people who ate well, exercise routinely, avoided tobacco, and controlled their weight had an 80% lower probability across their entire life span of developing ANY major chronic disease- heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, dementia, etc.- than those who smoked, ate badly, didn’t exercise, and lost control of their weight

 http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20131110133420-23027997-what-really-kills-us

What REALLY Kills Us

Heart disease is not the leading cause of death among men and women in the United States. Cancer, stroke, pulmonary disease, diabetes, and dementia are not the other leading causes of early mortality and/or chronic malady either.

Don’t get me wrong- these are the very diseases immediately responsible for an enormous loss of years from life, and an even greater loss of life from years. In that context, heart disease is indeed the most common immediate precipitant of early death among women and men alike. Cancer, stroke, and diabetes do indeed follow close behind. It’s just that these diseases aren’t really causes. They are effects.

We got this message loud, clear, and first- at least in the modern era- in what really should have been a culture-changing research paper published in JAMA in 1993 entitled ‘Actual Causes of Death in the United States.’ In that analysis, two leading epidemiologists, Drs. William Foege and J. Michael McGinnis, looked into the factors that accounted for the chronic diseases and other insults that immediately preceded premature deaths. When they were done crunching numbers, they had a list of ten factors that accounted for almost all of the premature deaths in our country every year.

Let’s digress to note we cannot ‘prevent’ death. But what makes death tragic is not that it happens- we are all mortal- but that it happens too soon. And even worse, that it happens after a long period of illness drains away vitality, capacity, and the pleasure of living. Chronic disease can produce a long, lingering twilight of quasi-living, before adding to that injury the insult of a premature death. And that, we can prevent. We can preserve vitality, and we can postpone death to its rightful time, at the end of our full life expectancy.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program. There were two astounding things about McGinnis and Foege’s list of ten factors*. First, we as individuals have substantial control over everything on the list, and virtually complete control over most of the entries. Second, just the first three factors on the list – tobacco, diet, and physical activity – accounted for fully 80% of the action. In other words, the actual, underlying “cause” of premature death in our country fully 8 times in 10 comes down to bad use of our feet (lack of physical activity), our forks (poor dietary choices), and/or our fingers (holding cigarettes).

I trust you immediately see the up-side to this. If bad use of feet, forks, and fingers accounts for 80% of premature deaths (and a bounty of chronic disease), it stands to reason that optimal use of feet, forks, and fingers could eliminate up to 80% of all premature mortality and chronic illness. This proves to be exactly true. Feet, forks, and fingers are the master levers of medical destiny.

We know this not just from McGinnis and Foege’s seminal paper, but from a steady drumbeat of corroborating research spanning the two decades since. Scientists at the CDC replicated the findings in the original paper in an update a decade later. Population-based research published in 2009 showed that people who ate well, exercise routinely, avoided tobacco, and controlled their weight had an 80% lower probability across their entire life span of developing ANY major chronic disease- heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, dementia, etc.- than those who smoked, ate badly, didn’t exercise, and lost control of their weight. Flip the switch on any of these factors from bad to good, and the lifetime risk of serious chronic disease was reduced by nearly 50%. But firing on all four cylinders produced a greater net benefit than perhaps any advance in the history of medicine. These very findings have been replicated again, and again– and have been shown to extend that same influence over the expression of our very genes. DNA is not destiny, and to a substantial extent- dinner is. By changing what we eat and how we live, we can alter the expression of our very genes in a way that immunizes us against chronic disease occurrence, recurrence, or progression.

And so it is we have the knowledge to eliminate fully 80% of all chronic disease and premature death. The contention isn’t even controversial.

But knowledge, alas, isn’t power unless it is put to use. And for the most part, we have not leveraged the astounding memo we first got in 1993. Not only have we failed to slash rates of chronic disease, we are actually seeing them rise- with onset at ever-younger ages. We could bequeath to our children a world in which 8 times in 10, heart attacks and strokes and cancer simply don’t happen. Instead, should current trends persist, we will bequeath to them a world in which they and their peers succumb to just such preventable calamities more often and earlier than we.

So current trends cannot persist- and that, bluntly, is why I wrote Disease Proof. As a society, we clearly know the ‘what,’ but as individuals and families; spouses and siblings; parents and grandparents- most of us, just as clearly, don’t know how. How, despite the challenges of modern living, do we adopt, maintain, and enjoy a healthful diet? How, despite those same challenges, do we fit fitness in? How do we navigate around other challenges, from sleep deprivation and lack of energy, to overwhelming stress, to chronic pain?

These questions have answers, and I know them. I know them not because I’m special, but because it’s my job to know them. Pilots know how to fly planes; nuclear physicists know how to split atoms. I am a health expert, and I know how to get to health and weight control from here. Like any worthwhile thing, it requires a skill set- but we are used to that. We had to learn how to read and ride our bikes. We had to learn how to drive our cars and use our smart phones. Every worthwhile undertaking in our lives has involved someone who already knew how teaching us. Our job was to learn, and apply.

Health and weight control are exactly the same. In Disease Proof, I share the full skill set I apply myself.

We could, as a culture, eliminate 80% of all chronic disease. But my family and yours cannot afford to keep on waitin’ on the world to change. By taking matters into our own hands, we can lose weight and find health right now. We can reduce our personal risk of chronic disease, and that of the people we love, by that very same 80%. We can make our lives not just longer, but better.

What really kills us prematurely, and all too often imposes years of misery before hand, isn’t a list of chronic diseases, but the factors that cause those diseases. What really takes years from life and life from years is a willingness to know WHAT, yet neglect the opportunity to know HOW. What really kills us is the failure to turn what we know and have long known, into what we do. We can change that, and substantially disease-proof ourselves and those we love, any time we’re ready. I hope that’s now, because waiting- is really killing us.

-fin

DISEASE PROOF is available in bookstores nationwide and at:

Dr. David L. Katz; www.davidkatzmd.com
www.turnthetidefoundation.org

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Dr-David-L-Katz/114690721876253
http://twitter.com/DrDavidKatz
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/david-l-katz-md-mph/7/866/479/

 

*the list is: tobacco, diet and activity patterns, alcohol, microbial agents, toxic agents, firearms, sexual behavior, motor vehicles, and illicit use of drugs

self-limiting repulsion

Over time, humanity has demonstrated a increasing tendency toward the repulsive.

Is it possible that humanity might repulse itself so much that begins to impact on population growth?

Could this be the root cause of plummeting birth rates in developed economies?

Advertising… the original Cognitive Behavioural Therapy.

The more I look at and think about cognitive behavioural therapy, the more I become persuaded that it is way less complicated than it sounds, but at the same time, quite a powerful way to change someone’s mind and/or behaviour.

In an odd way, it’s like academics and researchers are catching up to business, discovering that it’s possible to influence thinking in others using methods such as speaking with people, or sms’ing them, then applying the term cognitive behavioural therapy, when in actual fact, it’s just advertising (or promotion, or whatever well-worn and proven marketing modality best applies).

Urologists… WTF?

If the urologists behaved any more egregiously, they’d be drifting into crimes against humanity. It’s good to see the Cancer Council calling this out for what it is: “A disservice to men”. It’s also time for these ghouls to cease veiling their self-interest as their patients’.

http://www.medicalobserver.com.au/news/cancer-council-urges-men-to-think-carefully-before-prostate-testing

Cancer Council urges men to think carefully before prostate testing

Catherine Hanrahan   all articles by this author

A DRAMATIC increase in prostate cancer cases has prompted Cancer Council NSW to call for men to think carefully before being tested, but urologists refute the suggestion men are being treated unnecessarily.

A new study shows the number of prostate cancer diagnoses in Australia jumped 276% over the 20 years from 1987 to 2007.

This is a result of increased testing, lead author Associate Professor Freddy Sitas of Cancer Council NSW, said.

He said that even if a positive result is correct, unless they operate, doctors have no foolproof way of knowing if the cancer is aggressive or relatively harmless.

“Saving lives is our priority, but we urgently need a better test,” Professor Sitas said.

“The tests have saved men with aggressive forms of the disease, but at a high cost.”

A 27% drop in the death rate was observed over the study period, he said.

However, the increase in new cases is much greater than this.

“This indicates that many men were diagnosed with cancers that would not have harmed them.”

However, the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand has strongly refuted claims by the Cancer Council NSW that men have been done a “great disservice” by the growth in prostate cancer diagnoses, and have been subjected to unnecessary treatment.

“Twenty years ago we didn’t have a test to diagnose prostate cancer, which meant most men presented with advanced, incurable disease,” Professor Mark Frydenberg, the Urological Society’s Vice-President, said.

Many low risk cancers were more typically observed, not treated, he said, with active surveillance, now considered a mainstream pathway.

The University of NSW’s Professor Mark Harris says: “Until we have a better method of screening, men need to be fully informed about the pros and cons of testing.”

Cancer Epidemiol 2013; online 1 November

The behaviour change arms race…

Behavior change is difficult, but to date it has dominated by industries, such as the processed food industry, who have mastered the art of mass market behaviour change through a withering combination of product research, development and engineering, marketing, advertising and promotion, all founded on an unstoppable and lucrative business model. At this moment in history, industry is the unopposed, global behaviour change super power. Serious capital investment with serious returns but with the unfortunate side-effect of producing a global epidemic of non-communicable disease.

The institutions charged with protecting the public’s health have been caught flat footed. Rather than trying to neutralise industry’s behaviour change efforts, medically-dominated health systems have instead chosen to layer their own lucrative pharmaceutical and surgical business model on top.

Doctors quite legitimately pay lip service to the “diet and exercise” mantra because they know it doesn’t work. And why doesn’t it work? Because anyone can say eat healthier food and exercise, thus making it difficult to justify their years of training and high fees. It’s much better for doctors to note “diet and exercise”, but then pump the drug and surgery options.

So what needs to happen?

A countervailing super power must be established. Not one founded around a powerful business model, but rather a movement of interested citizens, concerned by the grotesque monentization of the population’s health. In effect, a competing super power in the behaviour change arms race.

Key characteristics:

  • protect the children
  • use evidence, but don’t wait for conclusive results
  • empower with data
  • apply political dark arts

Funding sources:

  • social impact bonds
  • crowd sourcing
  • private health insurers
  • government (not a good time for this)

Inspirations

  • Purpose.com
  • GetUp.org.au

 

The Broccoli make over…

I’ve been exploring the idea of becoming a broccoli magnate and what that would take. Michael Moss explored the idea of updating broccoli’s image in the NYTs recently with some interesting results…

Broccoli vs Kale

 

  • brocquet (it’s a flower)
  • broctober
  • in 2010, diet surpassed smoking as the biggest US risk factor for disease and death
  • nutritionists now consider fruit juice to be in the same category as soft drink
  • Nurses Health Study: 5 servings of vegetable/day = 28% reduced heart disease risk
  • DASH study: Plant-heavy diets achieve equivalent blood pressure drop to medications
  • Heart, Lung and Blood Institute’s Family Heart Study (2004): High vegetable and fruit consumption (4 or more servings a day) resulted in significantly lower LDL.
  • Less definitive evidence exists for a “buffering effect” on cancer (PN: vs. vegan?)
  • Health messages are overwhelmed by junk food messages
  • Jeffrey Dunn (former Coca-Cola president who now markets baby carrots) told a crowd of more than 1,000 at the Produce Marketing Association convention: “We must change the game. We can help solve the obesity crisis by stealing junk food’s playbook, by creating passion for produce, by becoming demand creators, not just growers and processors.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/03/magazine/broccolis-extreme-makeover.html

PDF: Broccoli’s Extreme Makeover – NYTimes

Purpose :: Tim Dixon – the power of narrative and story telling

Tim Dixon from Purpose gave a terrific presentation at the Progressive Australia conference.

Among the highlights, he referenced this part of Obama’s 2008 Victory Speech.

I spoke with him briefly afterwards and he indicated that Purpose hadn’t explored any movements around public health issues before. I can’t help thinking there’s a huge opportunity to do so, particularly around the global threat of non-communicable disease.

This taps into this article on story telling by Marshall Ganz shared with my by JMC.

Here are some of the slides he presented:

WP_20131103_002 WP_20131103_003WP_20131103_004WP_20131103_005WP_20131103_007WP_20131103_008    

Satiety and food… is it about structure, not composition?

While preparing for my Progressive Australia speech on healthy food yesterday, two factoids caught my attention:

1. The amazing Credit Suisse trashing of the sugar industry notes that calories derived from drinks (i.e. liquids) are not recognised by the body as contributing to our satiety. Hence, the body continues to seek and consume food as if calories from soft drinks, fruit juices etc. had not been consumed:

“Liquid and solid sugar calories are handled differently by the body. The energy that is obtained through beverages is interpreted and processed differently by our body from energy that is obtained through solid foods, even if the overall quantity of calories consumed is the same. Sugar by itself is a poor source of calories as it provides little nutritional value. Not surprisingly, the public debate has centered on soft drinks and the role they have played in this issue.”

2. Michael Moss’ NYT article on addictive junk food refers to Vanishing Caloric Density in Cheetos:

“To get a better feel for their work, I called on Steven Witherly, a food scientist who wrote a fascinating guide for industry insiders titled, “Why Humans Like Junk Food.” I brought him two shopping bags filled with a variety of chips to taste. He zeroed right in on the Cheetos. “This,” Witherly said, “is one of the most marvelously constructed foods on the planet, in terms of pure pleasure.” He ticked off a dozen attributes of the Cheetos that make the brain say more. But the one he focused on most was the puff’s uncanny ability to melt in the mouth. “It’s called vanishing caloric density,” Witherly said. “If something melts down quickly, your brain thinks that there’s no calories in it . . . you can just keep eating it forever.”

Put together with the phenomenal success of lap banding*, this suggests that satiety is mediated by mechanical receptors at the top of the stomach. I’m sure this isn’t rocket science and could be found in any physiology text book, but its unusual that it hasn’t made it into the public discourse.

It explains why fruit, but not fruit juice, is good for you – it is to do with fibre, but only when it persists in a structure, and nothing to do with its ability to magically slow absorption of sugars into the body etc.

It explains why most junk foods are melt in your mouth – so that by the time it hits the stomach, it’s in too much of a liquid form to stimulate the stomach’s mechanical receptors.

Again, unless you’re putting lap bands into people, the only way to profit for this is by recommending people eat solid foods which fill them up.

* Lap Bands must make it easier for any food (including liquids) to trigger the mechanical receptors in the stomach.

Credit Suisse Investment Report on Sugar: Credit Suisse – document-1022457401

Michael Moss’s NYT Article: The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food – NYTimes