Category Archives: politics

Gruen: A unified economic theory of privately provided public goods and social capital

Nicholas delivers a terrific presentation (1hr 7mins) to The Australian Centre for Social Innovation about the private provision of public goods and the subsequent generation of social capital.

It is as crisply considered as it is thought provoking:

  • after all this time, I think I finally understand that economists believe themselves to be the purveyors and arbiters of well-being, and ultimately health – no wonder they’re so suspicious of, and have so much trouble relating to medicine and health care
  • it would be interesting to apply this prism to health care – I don’t think it will present favourably

The presentation wraps with a 5 min video of the Family by Family program – a compelling sounding intervention that generates an abundance of social capital by developing and then using resources embedded in the community.

Many references to Adam Smith, Hayek and Robert Putnam.

Great to see something not confined to the sub-20min constraint.

Bravo Nicholas!!


http://clubtroppo.com.au/2013/12/20/public-goods-privately-provided-the-video/

 

 

WHO leaks sugar report – industry will be displeased

  • WHO will recommend sugar be limited to 5 teaspoons per day or 5% of total calories (current AU consumption around 35-45 teaspoons)

Source: http://www.raisin-hell.com/2014/01/the-world-health-organisation-has-taken.html

Sunday, January 5, 2014

The World Health Organisation has taken a tough stand on sugar. It’s about time we listened.

Last week the WHO (World Health Organization) leaked a draft report about sugar. The report will tell the world’s health authorities that they should be severely limiting the amount of sugar we all eat. It will recommend that we consume no more than 5 teaspoons of sugar a day. Given the average Australian is putting away somewhere closer to 35-45 teaspoons a day, it’s a very big call indeed.
The WHO is the health policy unit of the United Nations. Its aim is provide evidence based leadership on health research. It is well funded, free from corporate influence and motivated entirely by a desire to ensure that the 92 UN member countries get the best possible, evidence based, health advice. The WHO doesn’t run a Tick program or receive sponsorship from the processed food industry. Indeed it has even recently taken the extraordinary step of banning one ‘research’ group sponsored by industry from participating in its decision making processes.
Shrinath Reddy, a cardiologist and member of the WHO panel of experts, told the Sunday Times the WHO is moving on sugar because “There is overwhelming evidence coming out about sugar-sweetened beverages and other sugar consumption links to obesity, diabetes and even cardiovascular disease.”
The worldwide burden for those diseases is accelerating very quickly. According to a new report out this week the number of overweight and obese in the developing world has quadrupled since 1980.
A billion people in the developing world are now on the chronic disease express. But don’t worry, we still win. Less than a third of the population in China and India is overweight compared to our two thirds or more. They are just starting to get the hang of this Western Diet Thingy, so expect very big rises in the very near future.
The WHO have looked dispassionately at the evidence and have seen the tsunami of human misery caused by sugar coming for more than a decade They publicly warned that sugar was strongly implicated in obesity, type II diabetes, hypertension and heart disease in 2003.
They then took the extraordinary step of telling member governments that they should ensure their populations limited sugar consumption to a maximum of 10% of total calories (around 10 teaspoons of sugar a day – the same amount you would find in a Coke or a large Apple Juice). They did this despite an overt and vicious public campaign conducted by the Food industry.
The US sugar lobby demanded that the US Congress end its $406 million funding of the WHO. This is the same WHO that co-ordinates global action against epidemics like HIV, Bird Flu and SARS. But the US food industry wanted it destroyed because it dared to suggest we eat less sugar.
The lobbying behind the scenes was even more ruthless. Derek Yach, the WHO Executive Director who drove the sugar reduction policy work told a British documentary crew in 2004, that millions were spent trying to torpedo the policy. US Senators wrote directly to the WHO threatening its very existence. They also threatened the Food and Agriculture Organisation (a sister UN department concerned with food production) with a cut in funding.
In the end the food industry campaign paid off. The WHO removed its 10% recommendation from the final text of its recommendation. It was watered down to a suggestion that people ‘cut the amount of sugar in the diet’.
As one of the people involved at the time, Professor Phillip James, Chairman of the International Obesity Taskforce, predicted “we’ll end up with nice little policies telling [us] to have ‘just a bit less sugar and a little more balanced diet’ the nonsense that’s gone on since the Second World War during which time we’ve had this vast epidemic of heart disease, diabetes and obesity.”
Even the briefest glance at the official dietary guidance on sugar in Australia or the UK will tell you Professor James wasn’t too far from the mark with his prediction. Our guidelines are stuffed with words like ‘moderation’ and ‘balanced diet’ when it comes to sugar.
But the thing about evidence is, it doesn’t go away. And in the 10 years since the WHO last tried to save us from sugar, the evidence has become overwhelming (to quote Dr Reddy).
The WHO got a serious kicking when they tried to suggest a 10 teaspoon upper limit on sugar consumption, so you can imagine that the evidence they have reviewed must be truly overpowering to have them step up to the plate again. But this time they want the limit to be 5% (5 teaspoons) or less. I hope they’re wearing their flak jackets because I suspect a whole heap of blood money from the processed food industry is pouring into ‘lobbyists’ pockets as we speak.
The WHO is not running down sugar because it hates sugar farmers. It is not doing it because it likes getting mauled by the US Government (and its sponsors). It’s doing it because we will all suffer immensely if we don’t act on its advice.
I don’t know if the WHO can withstand the punishment they are about to receive. And I have no confidence that their recommended limit will make it through the firestorm of food industry sponsored ‘science’ which will suddenly surface. But I do know that when good people decide the evidence is so powerful that they should say it anyway, then the rest of us better be bloody listening.

Multinational businesses harming health

Strong article. Nothing new. Keeping the message out there.

Source: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/unhealthy-big-business-spreading-great-harm-20140105-30bnk.html

Unhealthy big business spreading great harm

January 6, 2014

Rob Moodie

If our negotiators buckle under the pressure applied by third parties, the price of a new trade agreement will be very high.

Illustration: Jim Pavlidis.Illustration: Jim Pavlidis.

Two-thirds of Indonesian men smoke and more than half of Chinese men smoke. Even more disturbing is that 40 per cent of 13-15-year-old Indonesian boys smoke. How have these levels been reached while the world has known for more than 50 years that tobacco is such a deadly habit?

In China, it is now estimated that 114 million people have diabetes. South Africa has one of the highest per capita alcohol consumption rates in the world, with more than 30 per cent of the population struggling with an alcohol problem or on the verge of having one.

Tobacco, alcohol, and diabetes related to overweight and obesity all have one feature in common. They are each largely driven, and in the case of tobacco completely caused, by powerful commercial interests in the form of transnational corporations. It has been said that China’s booming economy has brought with it a medical problem that could bankrupt the health system.

We now face a major dilemma: unrestrained commercial development is pitted against the health and wellbeing of populations. This dilemma is not new – opponents of the abolition of slavery complained it would ruin the economy – but it is manifesting in more obvious ways in the 21st century.

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The tobacco, alcohol and ultra-processed (”junk”) food and drink industries have been rapidly expanding in low and middle-income countries. In the past decade, tobacco retail sales growth in these countries was 20 times that of the developed world. For alcohol consumption it was three times; sugar-sweetened beverages it was twice. But it isn’t only Indonesia, China and South Africa where we find this dilemma; it is alive and well in Australia.

For years we have known that the tobacco industry promotes and funds biased research findings, co-opts policy makers and health professionals, lobbies politicians and officials to oppose public regulation, and influences voters to oppose public health measures through expensive public relations campaigns. This success has been noticed and over the past decade alcohol and ultra-processed food and drink companies have been emulating these very same tactics.

This is of little surprise given the flow of people, funds and activities across the industries. For example Philip Morris owned both Kraft and Miller Brewing; the board of SAB Miller (the second largest alcohol manufacturer) includes at least five past or present tobacco company executives and board members; and the Diageo executive director responsible for public affairs spent 17 years in a similar role at Philip Morris.

Economic development plays an important role in the health and wellbeing of populations. Income, employment and education levels are all major determinants of good health. Businesses create wealth, provide jobs and pay taxes (but as we have seen, not all of them). One of the best ways to protect and promote health is to ensure people have safe, meaningful jobs. The more evenly wealth and opportunity are distributed, the better the overall health and wellbeing of a population.

But clearly not all businesses are good or healthy – yet we see some of them expanding their markets and influence across the globe – seemingly with no capacity to diminish or mitigate the harm they do. It is astonishing that an industry such as tobacco, which is so harmful to human health, can wield so much power. In Indonesia, Philip Morris and its affiliate, Sampoerna, will invest $US174 million to improve production capacities so, as Sampoerna’s president has said, ”Indonesia would be the centre of the Marlboro brand production to cater [for] demands in the Asia-Pacific region”.

Why do they need to expand their activities? Aren’t the existing 700 million smokers in the region enough? Especially when we know that more than half of them will die prematurely, losing about 20 years of life to tobacco.

The major tobacco, food, and alcohol companies have assets that are greater than many countries and can wield this power in parliament, law courts and the media, against the interests of the public’s health.

A new battlefront in this power play is the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). This trade agreement among 12 countries (including Australia, Japan and the US) represents about 40 per cent of the global economy.

The Australian government aims to ”pursue a TPP outcome that eliminates, or at least substantially reduces, barriers to trade and investment” and that will ”also deal with behind-the-border impediments to trade and investment”.

It is highly complex, has 29 chapters, is being negotiated in secret and is provoking considerable criticism on the basis that it could greatly strengthen the hand of some industries to sue national governments for their domestic policies and also greatly weaken the capacity of governments to buy cheaper generic drugs. The Nobel prize-winning humanitarian group Medicins sans Frontieres says the TPP ”could restrict access to generic medicines, making life-saving treatments unaffordable to millions”.

If our trade negotiators buckle under the pressure from other governments, which are, in turn, highly influenced by transnational companies, then Australia will have to confront some major problems. These include delayed availability of cheaper generic drugs and increased cost of medicines; interference with our Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme; enshrining of rights to foreign corporations, such as tobacco companies, to sue our government; interference with our capacity to introduce health warnings on alcohol packaging, and the limiting of future options for food labelling.

Surely we must find a balance between unrestrained commercialism and maximising health and wellbeing. We need business for our individual and collective wellbeing. However, the benefits unhealthy businesses bring are outweighed by the costs – in terms of premature death, chronic illness, limited healthcare finances, overcrowding of hospitals and loss of productivity from unhealthy employees.

This is why we have governments – to ensure a balance among the rights of individuals, consumers, businesses and society as a whole. If, as Prime Minister Abbott has said, Australia is open for business, then we need to make sure it’s open for good business. If we can’t control the vested interests of unhealthy industries in trade agreements or in our domestic regulations, unhealthy business will come back to bite us all.

Rob Moodie is professor of public health at the University of Melbourne

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/unhealthy-big-business-spreading-great-harm-20140105-30bnk.html#ixzz2pbgfIvAZ

Dave Chase – How healthcare’s disruption will play out…

 

PDF Report: Volume_to_Value_Revolution

Healthcare’s Trillion-Dollar Disruption

As a healthtech startup, you can’t help but get excited when Bob Kocher (Venrock) or Esther Dyson speak about the opportunities in healthcare given their impressive track records. Both spoke during this past week’s StartUpHealth Summit.

One of Bob’s main points was that the opportunity in healthcare is so big that most startups are thinking too small and his firm is putting their money where his mouth is (e.g. Castlight). Esther has proven time and again to be very prescient — just go back and watch her old interviews on Charlie Rose over the years to see how accurately she predicts the future. She interrupted attending the JP Morgan presentations to visit with the StartUp Health Summit. Paraphrasing, she said companies like those in StartUp Health are the future. Rather than trying to steal share from the companies presenting at JP Morgan, startups should focus on creating the new market space, and the market will move to them…not the other way around.

Transformers vs. Preservatives

While the opportunities are massive, what’s the biggest obstacle to healthcare transformers? It’s the “preservatives” — the incumbent healthcare players. That is, the preservatives are trying to protect the status quo, rather than focusing on how to sincerely address the Triple Aim (improve outcomes, reduce cost, improve patient experience). In every healthcare organization I’ve talked with, whether they are a provider, pharma, or health plan, there are transformers internally who know what to do but are stymied by preservatives.

The same is true politically. There are those who call themselves “progressive” or “conservative.” Unfortunately, it seems that 80 percent of politicos are actually preservatives just doing the bidding of lobbyists trying to protect the status quo. The preservatives are costing thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of unnecessary wasted dollars. The real leaders in healthcare will see through them and get them out of the way of progress.

One of the transformative organizations pushing for change is Oliver Wyman. Oliver Wyman is a leading consultancy that has setup a Health Innovation Center that recently published a paper entitled The Volume-to-Value Revolution (PDF) with the input of an advisory board (PDF) of CEOs ranging from large public companies to emerging companies (disclosure: I’m on the Health Innovation Center Advisory Board). In that paper, authors Tom Main and Adrian Slywotzky make the case that new patient-centered population health models will cause more than $1 trillion of value to rotate from the old models to the new and create more than a dozen new $10 billion high-growth markets (see also Patients Are More Than A Vessel For Billing Codes). Each of these markets creates large opportunities for healthtech startups. Naturally, legacy vendors are optimized for the old models (see Why It’s Good News HealthIT is So Bad) while startups optimize for the new models.

Most industries compete on value. U.S. healthcare does not. But that is about to change.

Healthcare innovators are already redefining healthcare value, putting patients first and inventing with little regard for current constraints. They have ignited a powerful, self-funding upward spiral by focusing first on healthcare’s big opportunities, transforming the value equation, generating large savings, and fueling smart reinvestment in the next wave of innovation. [Introduction, “The Volume-to-Value Revolution”]

In addition, the necessity for change and the accompanying opportunities are causing many healthcare incumbents to establish venture arms. See Strategic Healthcare Investors’ Investment Thesis for more.

Industry Boundaries Rapidly Crumbling

Everyone is getting into each other’s and new businesses. Industry incumbents would be well advised to learn from the mistakes of incumbents in other disrupted sectors. As I observed earlier, providers are making newspaper industry mistakes.

The changes the industry faces will be neither smooth nor linear. A period of intense turbulence will produce more losers and winners than any industry transformation in recent memory. Cross-industry competition (healthcare versus retail versus technology versus others) will erase traditional boundaries and generate exciting new value propositions for patients, payers, and physicians.

For example, just this past week, Walgreen‘s has made it clear they’ll compete with healthcare providers and insurance companies. Competition, as newspapers learned, doesn’t come from obvious places.

Consumerization Of Healthcare

The consumer empowerment taken for granted from everything from buying cars to planning travel is finally arriving in healthcare nearly 15 years later than most industries.

Consumers, long passive, will have a new role. Employer incentives, retail access, and new technology options will encourage them to engage, demand information, and push for value. Baby boomers reaching the age of peak healthcare need will kindle the fire and Millennials focused on nutrition and fitness will keep it burning. The industry’s metamorphosis from a supply-driven market to a more dynamic one driven by demand will happen more quickly and erratically than we expect. Inevitably, mental models will lag behind market reality, and conventional organizations will fight a rearguard battle, hampered by collapsing margins and eroding market share.  [Introduction, “The Volume-to-Value Revolution”]

Walmart recently validated the domestic medical tourism I wrote about awhile back. Their Centers of Excellence program encourages their insured employees to go to the top facilities in the country for free (including travel expenses). The employees have to pay if they choose to go with organizations that haven’t demonstrated a willingness to have a fixed price while producing some of the best outcomes in the world. Love them or hate them, Walmart has a huge ripple effect. Overnight, every facility in America that does cardiac, spinal, or transplant procedures is now competing with Mayo, Cleveland Clinic and other top providers. Sticking to old models and tools endangers the traditional healthcare player.

By 2014, as many as 85 million consumers with $600 billion in purchasing power may be shopping for their own healthcare on public and private exchanges. Many will be making their own decisions about coverage for the first time. Consumers will shop not just for insurance, but also for their preferred population-health manager and standalone services, such as basic procedures and retail clinics. [pg. 18, “The Volume-to-Value Revolution”]

New Models Jeopardize Hospitals

Many are predicting half of hospitals will close by 2020. In Denmark, nearly 70 percent of hospitals closed as they made the shift from a reactive, sick-care model to proactive care model. More clinicians than ever will be needed. They’ll simply have a mainframe-to-smartphone like shift as outlined inhealthcare’s age of agility. Unfortunately, the average hospital is one of the most dangerous places with over 100,000 hospital-acquired infections causing death every year. Hospitals are almost always the most expensive place to deliver care so smart health systems are developing new models with a fresh start — what I call the Xboxification of Healthcare.

One of the reasons providers are choosing cloud-based systems over on-premise software is the resource-intensive deployments required with legacy systems. We’ve seen a small clinic get their cloud-based system fully setup and ready to use in 30 minutes without any onsite people. In contrast,  in that same amount of time, one might be able to order the server that gets shipped to that clinic. They will then require onsite installers, trainers, etc. and have a dramatically higher cost base to run that system.

For entirely rational reasons, those older systems were optimized for internal workflows and maximizing billing since that is what has been rewarded historically. To think that those traditional systems will then work perfectly well in the ascending “No Outcome, No Income” era borders on delusional. The reality is hitting right away. A recent article in a HIMSS publication quoted a leading thinker in healthIT, Shahid Shah, outlining 9 major gaps in existing EHRs. He listed “sophisticated patient relationship management (PRM)” as the first major gap. It’s my opinion that as integral as EHRs have been to fee-for-service, PRM will be to fee-for-value. The old model relegated patient portal functionality to be little more than a marketing checkbox. In the new model, PRM functionality becomes a linchpin. In other words, patient portals have been like pre-Google web search (low value afterthoughts on web portals). As Google demonstrated, with the right circumstances, there was huge value ignored by the established players. Likewise, if PRM is viewed as an afterthought, that will increase the risk to providers during this transformative period. Being flat-footed in a time of great change is extremely risky.

The New York Times reported this past week that the public hospitals are already changing the way they compensate their doctors. The first performance measure they listed was how well patients say their doctors communicate with them. These doctors are used to easy communication in the rest of their life with email, text, Facebook, etc.  Suddenly, the hospital IT departments are going to start hearing from doctors asking why they can’t have tools that are as easy to communicate with their patients in the other areas of their life. It’s a rare occurrence to hear a doctor say how user-friendly and patient-focused their EHR is. Of course, it’s about more than just technology. The technology simply enables new models. Despite many doctors’ fears, often the changes are for the better as was mentioned by Dr. Bob Margolis, founder and CEO of HealthCare Partners, and one of the physician leaders who has demonstrated extraordinary outcomes:

You get to the tipping point, where the physicians go, ‘Wow, life is a whole lot better.’ You know, I only have to see 20 patients a day and I go home at night and I feel like I really helped them’—as opposed to, ‘I saw 45 patients, worked until 10 o’clock because I had to then do all my paperwork, I’m tired and I can barely pay the bills because Medicare and the commercial insurers are cutting back on my reimbursement.’

Oliver Wyman’s report projects that patient-centered care and the shift to value will eliminate $500 billion in low-value-add activities. One has to be in major denial as a healthcare leader to think that we aren’t entering a deflationary era in healthcare. Just watch Bill Gates’ TED Talk on state budgets if you have any doubts. This is exactly the reason the state of New York has moved aggressively to change care and payment models. While doing that, they recognized new models require new technology and didn’t expect they’d get it from legacy providers. This is why the New York Digital Health Accelerator was established. The good news for proactive health systems is that one can thrive in a deflationary period if they shed old assumptions.

A leader at Virginia Mason in Seattle shared how Starbuck’s pushback on costs caused them to look at their entire care proces:

 “90 percent of what the hospital was doing was of no value.” As it turns out, the best way to treat most back pain is with physical therapy. That insight led to new processes, including same-day visits (as opposed to 31-day waits), reduced use of imaging tests and prescription drugs, and the addition of psychological support. Within three months, 94 percent of Starbucks employees with back-pain complaints were back at work within a day.

Even today, many EMR vendors will justify the price tags that reach into the hundreds of millions of dollars on the basis of increased billings. That game is nearly over and those hospitals will be saddled with systems optimized for the old models. This past week there were articles in the New York Times and Washington Post stating that EHRs have “failed”. I’d dispute that. EHRs have done exactly as they were designed — maximize billings. That’s how they are pitched so it should be no surprise that costs haven’t been lowered.

It has been said that “when the rate of change outside exceeds the rate of change inside, the end is in sight.”

Three Waves Of Disruption

Below, I have excerpted and paraphrased some more of Oliver Wyman’s insights from the Volume-to-Value paper illustrating how each of the three anticipated waves of disruption will shift hundreds of billions of revenue from one set of players to another:

Wave 1: Patient-Centered Care (2010-2016). “If we simply mainstreamed today’s best-in-class models of patient-centered, population-health management, the U.S. health system would eliminate nearly $350 billion of low-value-add activity and shift another $600 billion from provider-centered care models to patient-centered care models.” […] ”Five percent of Americans account for 45 percent of healthcare spending—$1.2 trillion. These 15 million unhealthy Americans at the top of the healthcare pyramid are at the heart of the near-term healthcare affordability crisis and the unfortunate victims of our fragmented, illness- focused healthcare system.” [pages 5 and 7, “The Volume-to-Value Revolution”]

 

Cost & population pyramid

Wave 2: Consumer Engagement (2014-2020). In Wave 2, another $150 billion in low-value-add activities is squeezed out, while $400 billion of additional value will rotate to the new retail value chain.

Oliver Wyman transition


Wave 3: The Science Of Prevention (2018-2025). Wave 2 will help Wave 1’s great population managers become even more effective and will devastate provider-centric players who have lagged the market. Wave 3 will make the most highly evolved and adaptive population health managers more powerful and will significantly constrict the Wave 1 players who don’t continue to accelerate innovation.

Big Opportunities Require Big Brains

I once heard someone say, “There’s a lot of big brains working on small problems.” They were commenting on the brainpower working on the 8,000th social media app versus where they should be applying their brains. That is, there are three areas that demand as many big brains as possible — healthcare, education, and energy. As a skier, I often say that healthtech startups are the double black diamond in whiteout conditions of startups: super challenging and exhilarating but not for the faint of heart.

I believe the trick is to understand the idiosyncrasies of healthcare without being shackled by them. If you want to make a difference, there’s no better place than healthcare. Healthcare needs all the engineering talent possible that is often wasted on low-impact areas of the tech industry.

Follow @chasedave on Twitter or request the Care Beyond the Clinic newsletter for ongoing updates on healthcare innovation and disruption.

The Age: Doctor obsession has led to health blowout

  • Peter Brooks says we will have an excess of doctors
  • He suggests there are $20B in “low value” medical procedures

 

From: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/healthcare-doctor-obsession-to-lead-to-cost-blowout-20140101-30672.html

Healthcare: ‘Doctor obsession’ to lead to cost blowout

Jonathan Swan — January 2, 2014

Decisions made by Tony Abbott when he was health minister will soon cause a blowout in healthcare costs dwarfing the money saved by introducing a $6 fee for GP visits, a health workforce expert says.

As health minister in the Howard government, Mr Abbott oversaw a massive expansion of new medical schools and student intakes, leading to an oversupply of graduating doctors, said Peter Brooks, former director of the Australian Health Workforce Institute and now a professorial fellow at the University of Melbourne.

Australia is expected to have 2811 superfluous doctors by 2025, based on projections in a March 2012 report by the government body Health Workforce Australia. The figure assumes a modest 5 per cent increase in productivity in the healthcare system.

Health lobby groups often said Australia would be short 2700 doctors by 2025, but the figure was misleading because it assumed no productivity gains would be made, Professor Brooks said.

The boom in medical graduates would ”lead to a blowout in costs” with doctors already giving patients too many unnecessary procedures so they could earn a good living in Australia’s fee-for-service system, Professor Brooks said.

At least $20 billion of ”low value” medical procedures were already being done every year in Australia, he said. If Mr Abbott wanted a ”sustainable” healthcare system, he should address these multibillion dollar structural healthcare problems rather than “fiddling around” with fees for GP visits, Professor Brooks said.

The Medicare controversy kicked off at the weekend with reports of a submission to the government’s commission of audit from Mr Abbott’s former health adviser, Terry Barnes. Mr Barnes said the government would save $750 million over four years by forcing patients who are bulk-billed to pay $6 to visit their GP for each of the first 12 visits a year.

A spokeswoman for Mr Abbott said on Wednesday the Coalition ”won’t be commenting on speculation around what the commission of audit may or may not recommend”. ”Labor spent a lot of money on creating huge health bureaucracies,” she said.

”The Coalition government is committed to directing more of that money back to delivering and improving frontline services for patients.”

The debate over the $6 GP fee – which experts say will harm the poorest and sickest Australians – was obscuring a more important debate over healthcare costs, Professor Brooks said.

Australian governments had become ”doctor obsessed”, ignoring evidence that many of the tasks performed by doctors could be given to other health professionals such as pharmacists, nurse practitioners and physician assistants.

Health Workforce Australia reports that in 2003, 1889 students began medical degrees. By 2012 there were 3686 students starting medicine. Even with international students excluded, the medical education peak body, Medical Deans Australia, said medical graduates more than doubled between 1996 and 2012.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/healthcare-doctor-obsession-to-lead-to-cost-blowout-20140101-30672.html#ixzz2paMRNfzU

NYT: Health care spending control…

Some great lines, factoids and observations in this piece:

  • With half a billion dollars spent by medical lobbyists each year, according to the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics, our fragmented profit-driven system is effectively insulated from many of the forces that control spending elsewhere. Even Medicare is not allowed to negotiate drug prices for its tens of millions of beneficiaries, and Americans are forbidden by law to re-import medicines made domestically and sold more cheaply abroad.
  • Many health economists say we must move away from the so-called fee-for-service model, where doctors and hospitals bill every event, every pill, every procedure, even hourly rental of the operating room. Though insurers try to hold down costs by negotiating discounts or limiting reimbursement, this strategy has limited power because armies of consultants now advise hospitals on what is known as “strategic billing”: Losing money from trauma patients? Hospitals can add on a $10,000-plus “trauma activation fee.” Medicare not paying enough for a broken wrist? Add a separate “casting fee” to the bill. “People in fee-for-service are very clever — they stay one step ahead of the formulas to maximize revenue,” said Dr. Steven Schroeder, a professor at the medical school of the University of California, San Francisco.

  • Given that national or even regional rate-setting is out of the question, most health economists argue that the nation needs a new type of payment model, one where doctors and hospitals earn more by keeping patients healthy with preventive care rather than by prescribing expensive tests. Such models exist: A number of hospital and doctors groups engage in so-called capitated care, where they are paid an annual fee by an employer or individual for all patient needs and must work within that budget. The Affordable Care Act promotes a strategy focused on accountable care organizations, in which similar networks can earn financial rewards for figuring out how to save money while meeting standards for good care. But such models are still far from the norm in a country where a majority of physicians are in business for themselves and doctors and hospitals bill separately.

  • Reference pricing: Pick a rate they think is fair for a procedure — say $32,000 for a knee replacement, all-inclusive. If a patient wants to go to a hospital with higher fees, the difference comes out of his pocket.
  • Blumenthal on US health reform: “If you put our health care system on an island and floated it out into the Atlantic it would have the fifth-largest G.D.P. in the world. It’s like saying you have to change the economy of France.”

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/22/sunday-review/health-cares-road-to-ruin.html

The New York Times

 

Health Care’s Road to Ruin

By December 21, 2013

 

HAVING spent the last year reporting for a series of articles on the high cost of American medicine, I’ve heard it all. There was Fred Abrahams, 77, a skier who had surgery on both ankles for arthritis — one in New York for more than $200,000 and one in New Hampshire for less than $40,000. There was Matthew Landman, 41, billed more than $100,000 for antivenin administered in an E.R. after a small rattlesnake bite. There was Robin Miller, a Florida businessman, who needed to buy an implantable defibrillator for his ill brother, who was uninsured; the machine costs tens of thousands of dollars, but he couldn’t get a price for a make or a model.

Extreme anecdotes, perhaps. But the series has prompted more than 10,000 comments of outrage and frustration — from patients, doctors, politicians, even hospital and insurance executives.

As of Jan. 1, the Affordable Care Act promises for the first time to deliver the possibility of meaningful health insurance to every American. But where does that leave the United States in terms of affordable care?

Even supporters see Obamacare as a first step on a long quest to bring Americans affordable medicine, with further adjustments, interventions and expansions needed.

There are plenty of interesting ideas being floated to help repair the system, many of which are being used in other countries, where health care spending is often about half of that in the United States. For example, we could strictly regulate prices or preset payment levels, as is currently done for hospital stays under Medicare, the national insurance program for people over 65, or at least establish fair price corridors for procedures and drugs. We could require hospitals and doctors to provide price lists and upfront estimates to allow consumers to make better choices. We could stop paying doctors and hospitals for each service they performed and instead compensate them with a fixed monthly fee for taking care of each patient. We could even make medical school free or far cheaper and then require service afterward.

But the nation is fundamentally handicapped in its quest for cheaper health care: All other developed countries rely on a large degree of direct government intervention, negotiation or rate-setting to achieve lower-priced medical treatment for all citizens. That is not politically acceptable here. “A lot of the complexity of the Affordable Care Act arises from the political need in the U.S. to rely on the private market to provide health care access,” said Dr. David Blumenthal, a former adviser to President Obama and president of the Commonwealth Fund, a New York-based foundation that focuses on health care.

With that political backdrop, Obamacare deals only indirectly with high prices. By regulating and mandating insurance plans, it seeks to create a better, more competitive market that will make care from doctors and hospitals cheaper. But it primarily relies on a trickle-down theory of cost containment. The Princeton health economist Uwe E. Reinhardt has called it “a somewhat ugly patch” on “a somewhat ugly system.”

With half a billion dollars spent by medical lobbyists each year, according to the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics, our fragmented profit-driven system is effectively insulated from many of the forces that control spending elsewhere. Even Medicare is not allowed to negotiate drug prices for its tens of millions of beneficiaries, and Americans are forbidden by law to re-import medicines made domestically and sold more cheaply abroad.

And so American patients are stuck with bills and treatment dilemmas that seem increasingly Kafkaesque. The hopeful news is that American health care spending has grown at a slower pace over the past four years. While that is partly because of the recession, economists say, many credit the cost-containing forces unleashed by Obamacare with a significant assist. Even at that rate, many models suggest that nearly 25 percent of gross domestic product will be eaten up by health care in 20 years. That is not sustainable.

“It’s like a diet you can’t just stop, because it’s starting to work,” said Michael Chernew, an economist at Harvard Medical School. “And remember, we haven’t even lost weight yet, we’re just gaining weight more slowly.”

Many health economists say we must move away from the so-called fee-for-service model, where doctors and hospitals bill every event, every pill, every procedure, even hourly rental of the operating room. Though insurers try to hold down costs by negotiating discounts or limiting reimbursement, this strategy has limited power because armies of consultants now advise hospitals on what is known as “strategic billing”: Losing money from trauma patients? Hospitals can add on a $10,000-plus “trauma activation fee.” Medicare not paying enough for a broken wrist? Add a separate “casting fee” to the bill.

“People in fee-for-service are very clever — they stay one step ahead of the formulas to maximize revenue,” said Dr. Steven Schroeder, a professor at the medical school of the University of California, San Francisco.

Given that national or even regional rate-setting is out of the question, most health economists argue that the nation needs a new type of payment model, one where doctors and hospitals earn more by keeping patients healthy with preventive care rather than by prescribing expensive tests.

Such models exist: A number of hospital and doctors groups engage in so-called capitated care, where they are paid an annual fee by an employer or individual for all patient needs and must work within that budget. The Affordable Care Act promotes a strategy focused on accountable care organizations, in which similar networks can earn financial rewards for figuring out how to save money while meeting standards for good care. But such models are still far from the norm in a country where a majority of physicians are in business for themselves and doctors and hospitals bill separately.

The new law includes a number of incentives intended to nudge doctors, hospitals and insurers to join groups and focus more on value, “but we don’t know how well they’re going to work,” said John Holahan, a fellow at the Urban Institute’s Health Policy Center.

For example, the law will tax premiums for the most expensive insurance plans to keep luxury health care spending down. And Medicare, through a value-based purchasing program set up by the law, is providing bonuses to doctors and hospitals for meeting quality-care standards. But those are tentative steps. In fact, recent research published in the journal Health Affairs concluded that the magnitude of bonuses now offered to hospitals was too small to change behavior, noting that even supermarket coupons tended to offer benefits worth well over 10 percent of total value.

The Affordable Care Act generally requires patients to be responsible for more of their bills — copays and deductibles — so they will become more price-savvy medical consumers. But the deck is stacked against them in a system where doctors and hospitals are not required or expected to provide upfront pricing. Why not? They should tell and patients should ask. (In France, before a hip replacement on a private patient, doctors must sign a contract that includes a price.)

And policy makers need to address two of the biggest drivers of our inflated national health care bill: the astronomical price of hospitalizations and particularly end-of-life care.

Obamacare plans cap an individual’s annual out-of-pocket spending at $6,350 a year. That (happily) prevents bankruptcy, but it also means that patients will still not be very discerning shoppers when it comes to major hospitalizations, since — in the United States — they’ve quite likely surpassed their out of pocket maximum by the time they’ve been formally admitted.

On the private side, some companies and employee health plans are experimenting with new payment models to limit these large bills. They may follow Medicare, which offers hospitals bundled payments for given procedures, or try a technique known as reference pricing, in which they pick a rate they think is fair for a procedure — say $32,000 for a knee replacement, all-inclusive. If a patient wants to go to a hospital with higher fees, the difference comes out of his pocket.

To rein in price increases, companies and insurers have begun offering patients narrower networks, already a major gripe about many Obamacare plans.

And as choices narrow while prices rise, I sense that many patients are no longer so devoted to a market-based health care system. Barbara Felton, 86, was “shocked” when she saw her $12,000 itemized hospital bill for a recent brief stay to repair a fractured femur in Pocatello, Idaho. “I’ve never been in favor of a single payer before, but now I am,” she said, referring to a government-run health system.

The perfect recipe for containing medical costs remains to be written and must be tweaked thoughtfully. After all, the American health care system is a major part of the economy. As Dr. Blumenthal, the former Obama adviser, put it: “If you put our health care system on an island and floated it out into the Atlantic it would have the fifth-largest G.D.P. in the world. It’s like saying you have to change the economy of France.”

But after a year spent hearing from hundreds of patients like Mr. Abrahams, Mr. Landman and Mr. Miller, I know, too, that reforming the nation’s $2.9 trillion health system is urgent, and will not be accomplished with delicate maneuvers at the margins. There are many further interventions that we know will help contain costs and rein in prices. And we’d better start making choices fast.

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Elisabeth Rosenthal is a reporter for The New York Times who is writing a series about the cost of health care, “Paying Till It Hurts.”.

 

Antifragile – Taleb at the RSA

This hour long presentation covers the key points from Taleb’s Antifragile. It doesn’t matter how often I read or listen to this, it still comes across as massive. Interesting that the UK conservatives are taking it up with vigor, hmm….

Big Ideas page: http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/antifragile/4501692

RSA page: http://www.thersa.org/events/audio-and-past-events/2012/antifragile

Full RSA audio link

Antifragile

Tuesday 12 February 2013 8:05PM

 

In 2006 Nassim Taleb came to prominence with the publication of The Black Swanand the idea that the world is full of highly improbably and unpredictable events. In his latest book Antifragile he explains how to live with, and respond to, these seemingly random and unforeseen black swan events.

The key he says is to create systems that are Antifragile; ones that are not simply robust or resilient but can adapt and improve when subjected to uncertainty, chaos and volatility.

Highlights of Antifragile – RSA (UK) 6th Dec. 2012

Guests

Nassim Taleb
Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute.
Author of ‘Antifragile: how to live in a world we don’t understand’ (Allen Lane, 2012).
Rohan Silva
Senior policy adviser to UK Prime Minister, David Cameron.
Fraser Nelson
Editor, The Spectator (UK)

Further Information

The RSA

Credits

Presenter
Paul Barclay
Abridger
Ian Coombe

Sir Muir Gray – ACSQHC Presentation

  • We’re entering a new era in the NHS where there is “NO MORE MONEY

@19min: describes “three big businesses in respiratory disease – asthma, COPD, apnoea”

  • Value = Outcomes / Costs
  • Outcome = Effectiveness (EBM+Quality) – Harm (Safety)
  • Costs = Money + Time + Carbon

@22mins: moving from guideline care to personalised care

@26mins: Bureaucracy is important and necessary, but should stick to what it’s good at doing:

  1. The fair and open employment and promotion of people
  2. The un-corrupt management of money
  3. !! Not the curing of disease or delivery of health care – populations defined by need, not jurisdiction

@32mins: law of diminishing returns – benefits plateau as invested resources rise

@33mins: Harmful effects of healthcare increase in direct proportion to the resources invested

@34mins: combine the 2 curves – get a j-shaped curve with a point of optimality – the point of investment after which, the health gain may start to decline

@35mins: as the rate of intervention in the population increases, the balance of benefit and harm also changes for the individual patient

@37mins: value spectrum

[HIGH VALUE]
– necessary
– appropriate
[LOW VALUE]
– inappropriate
– futile
[NEGATIVE VALUE]

@39mins: The Payers’ Archipelago

20th Century Care >> 21st Century Care
Doctor >> Patient
Bureaucracy >> Network
Institutions >> Systems

@42mins: clinicians responsible for whole populations, not just the patients in front of them

@45mins: How to start a revolution
– change the culture – destabilise and constrain; control language
– engage patients and citizens, and the future leaders of 2033
– structure doesn’t matter (5%)
– systems (40%)
– culture or mindset (50%)

@46mins: Culture – the shared tacit assumptions of a group that it has learned in coping with external threats and dealing with internal relationships” Schein (1999) The Corporate Culture Survival Guide

@47mins50s: data doesn’t change the world, emotion changes the world
– atlases written for OMG effect
– programme budgeting

destabilise then constrain then change the language

@49mins: MUDA means waste — resource consumption that doesn’t contribute to the outcome. motonai – the feeling of regret that resources are being wasted. ban old language.

@51mins: mandatory training in new thinking

The Third Healthcare Revolution is already underway
1. PHONE
2. CITIZENS
3. KNOWLEDGE

The third healthcare revolution will come out of the barrel of a smartphone

@56mins: Healthcare is too complex to be run by bureaucracies or markets. Work like an ant colony – neither markets nor bureaucracies can solve the challenges of complexity.

 

PDF: Sir-Muir-Gray-Masterclass-presentation-1-Oct-2013

ASQHC Presentation link: http://www.safetyandquality.gov.au/our-work/medical-practice-variation/presentations/

Prevention Economics

Right. So I’m now comfortable with the idea that the greatest failing of modern healthcare is for it to have extended lifespan without having extended healthy life years. The challenge then, is to extend fully productive life to something far closer to our life expectancy. This can be done with a plant based diet, fasting and moderate exercise. No pills. No fads. Jus a new norm.

But how do we pay for it? Determine the economic cost of extending a life’s productivity by a year seems like a reasonable first step. Then take a piece of that?

Bring in the direct beneficiaries of such a change – the life insurers, super funds and broccoli farmers.

What a great bunch of business partners they’d be.

Giddy up….

Hammerbacher, Sinai and Minerva…

Top piece on Sinai’s vision. Everything’s lined up there except the doctors – hmmm…. They’ll need some amazing insights to bust through the inertia, but expect they’ll glean them…

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3022050/futurist-forum/in-the-hospital-of-the-future-big-data-is-one-of-your-doctors

In The Hospital Of The Future, Big Data Is One Of Your Doctors

December 5, 2013 | 7:30 AM

From our genomes to Jawbones, the amount of data about health is exploding. Bringing on top Silicon Valley talent, one NYC hospital is preparing for a future where it can analyze and predict its patients’ health needs–and maybe change our understanding of disease.

The office of Jeff Hammerbacher at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine sits in the middle of one of the most stark economic divides in the nation. To Hammerbacher’s south are New York City’s posh Upper East Side townhouses. To the north, the barrios of East Harlem.

What’s below is most interesting: Minerva, a humming supercomputer installed last year that’s named after the Roman goddess of wisdom and medicine.

It’s rare to find a supercomputer in a hospital, even a major research center and medical school like Mount Sinai. But it’s also rare to find people like Hammerbacher, a sort of human supercomputer who is best known for launching Facebook’s data science teamand, later, co-founding Cloudera, a top Silicon Valley “big data” software company where he is chief scientist today. After moving to New York this year to dive into a new role as a researcher at Sinai’s medical school, he is setting up a second powerful computing cluster based on Cloudera’s software (it’s called Demeter) and building tools to better store, process, mine, and build data models. “They generate a pretty good amount of data,” he says of the hospital’s existing electronic medical record system and its data warehouse that stored 300 million new “events” last year. “But I would say they are only scratching the surface.”

Could there actually be three types of Type 2 diabetes? A look at the health data of 30,000 volunteers hints that we know less than we realize. Credit: Li Li, Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine, and Ayasdi

Combined, the circumstances make for one of the most interesting experiments happening in hospitals right now–one that gives a peek into the future of health care in a world where the amount of data about our own health, from our genomes to ourJawbone tracking devices, is exploding.

“What we’re trying to build is a learning health care system,” says Joel Dudley, director of biomedical informatics for the medical school. “We first need to collect the data on a large population of people and connect that to outcomes.”

To imagine what the hospital of the future could look like at Mount Sinai, picture how companies like Netflix and Amazon and even Facebook work today. These companies gather data about their users, and then run that data through predictive models and recommendation systems they’ve developed–usually taking into account a person’s past history, maybe his or her history in other places on the web, and the history of “similar” users–to make a best guess about the future–to suggest what a person wants to buy or see, or what advertisement might entice them.

Through real-time data mining on a large scale–on massive computers like Minerva–hospitals could eventually operate in similar ways, both to improve health outcomes for individual patients who enter Mount Sinai’s doors as well as to make new discoveries about how to diagnose, treat, and prevent diseases at a broader, public health scale. “It’s almost like the Hadron Collider approach,” Dudley says. “Let’s throw in everything we think we know about biology and let’s just look at the raw measurements of how these things are moving within a large population. Eventually the data will tell us how biology is wired up.”

Dudley glances at his screen to show the very early inklings of this vision of what “big data” brought to the world of health care and medical research could mean.

On it (see the figure above) is a visualization of the health data of 30,000 Sinai patients who have volunteered to share their information with researchers. He points out, in color, three separate clusters of the people who have Type 2 diabetes. What we’re looking at could be an entirely new notion of a highly scrutinized disease. “Why this is interesting is we could really be looking at Type 2, Type 3, and Type 4 diabetes,” says Dudley. “Right now, we have very coarse definitions of disease which are not very data-driven.” (Patients on the map are grouped by how closely related their health data is, based on clinical readings like blood sugar and cholesterol.)

From this map and others like it, Dudley might be able to pinpoint genes that are unique to diabetes patients in the different clusters, giving new ways to understand how our genes and environments are linked to disease, symptoms, and treatments. In another configuration of the map, Dudley shows how racial and ethnic genetic differences may define different patterns of a disease like diabetes–and ultimately, require different treatments.

These are just a handful of small examples of what could be done with more data on patients in one location, combined with the power to process it. In the same way Facebook shows the social network, this data set is the clinical network. (The eventual goal is to enroll 100,000 patients in what’s called the BioMe platform to explore the possibilities in having access to massive amounts of data.) “There’s nothing like that right now–where we have a sort of predictive modeling engine that’s built into a health care system,” Dudley says. “Those methods exist. The technology exists, and why we’re not using that for health care right now is kind of crazy.”

While Sinai’s goal is to use these methods to bring about more personalized diagnoses and treatments for a wide variety of diseases, such as cancer or diabetes, and improve patient care in the hospital, there are basic challenges that need to be overcome in order to making this vision achievable.

Almost every web company was born swimming in easily harvested and mined data about users, but in health care, the struggle has for a long time been more simple: get health records digitized and keep them private, but make them available to individual doctors, insurers, billing departments, and patients when they need them. There’s not even a hospital’s version of a search engine for all its data yet, says Hammerbacher, and in the state the slow-moving world of health care is in today, making predictions that would prevent disease could be just the icing on the cake. “Simply centralizing the data and making it easily available to a broad base of researchers and clinicians will be a powerful tool for developing new models that help us understand and treat disease,” he says.

Sinai is starting to put some of these ideas into clinical practice at the hospital. For example, in a hint of more personalized medicine that could come one day, the FDA is beginning to issue labels for some medicines that dictate different doses for patients who have a specific genetic variant (or perhaps explain that they should avoid the medicine altogether). The “Clipmerge” software that the hospital is beginning to now use makes it easier for doctors to quickly search and be notified of these kinds of potential interactions on an electronic medical record form.

On the prediction side, the hospital has already implemented a predictive model called PACT into its electronic medical record system. It is used to predict the likelihood that a discharged patient will come back to the hospital within 90 days (the new health care law creates financial incentives for hospitals to reduce their 90-day readmission rate). Based on the prediction, a high-risk patient at the medical center now might actually receive different care, such as being assigned post-care coordinator.

Eventually, there will be new kinds of data that can be put in mineable formats and linked to electronic patient records, from patient satisfaction surveys and doctors’ clinical notes to imaging data from MRI scans, Dudley says.

Right now, for example, the growing volumes of data generated from people’s fitness and health trackers is interesting on the surface, but it’s hard to glean anything meaningful for individuals. But when the data from thousands of people are mined for signals and links to health outcomes, Dudley says, it’s likely to prove valuable in understanding new ways to prevent disease or detect it at the earliest signs.

A major limitation to this vision is the hospital’s access to all of these new kinds of data. There are strict federal laws that govern patient privacy, which can make doctors loathe to experiment with ways to gather it or unleash it. And there are many hoops today to transferring patient data from one hospital or doctor to another, let alone from all the fitness trackers floating around. If patients start demanding more control over their own health data and voluntarily provide it to doctors, as Dudley believes patients will start to do, privacy could become a concern in ways people don’t expect or foresee today–just as it has on the Internet.

One thing is clear: As the health care system comes under pressure to cut costs and implement more preventative care, these ideas will become more relevant. Says Dudley: “A lot of people do research on computers, but I think what we’re hoping for is that we’re going to build a health care system where complex models … are firing on an almost day-to-day basis. As patients are getting information about them put in the electronic medical record system there will be this engine in the background.”

 

JESSICA LEBER