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Delaying ageing vastly more impactful than targeting individual diseases – Health Affairs

Substantial Health And Economic Returns From Delayed Aging May Warrant A New Focus For Medical Research

  1. S. Jay Olshansky7
  1. 1Dana P. Goldman (dana.goldman@usc.edu) is a professor of public policy and pharmaceutical economics and the director of the Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California, in Los Angeles.

  2. 2David Cutler is a professor of economics at Harvard University, in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  3. 3John W. Rowe is a professor of health policy and management at Columbia University, in New York City.

  4. 4Pierre-Carl Michaud is a professor of economics at the University of Quebec, in Montreal.

  5. 5Jeffrey Sullivan is director of analytic consulting at Precision Health Economics, in Los Angeles.

  6. 6Desi Peneva is a research associate at Precision Health Economics.

  7. 7S. Jay Olshansky is a professor of epidemiology at the University of Illinois at Chicago.
  1. ↵*Corresponding author

Abstract

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model—a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans—we compared optimistic “disease specific” scenarios with a hypothetical “delayed aging” scenario in terms of the scenarios’ impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060—mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.