All posts by blackfriar

musings

Salary = BS Blood Money

It seems to be that the more pay a job demands, the more BS that job is required to defend.

On the face of it, lawyers, medical proceduralists, bankers, corporate CEOs and directors general all appear to be highly skilled, dedicated and talented leaders. Up close, I can’t help thinking they are more often just supreme merchants of bluff, opportunism and chutzpah – perhaps also the core qualities of modern leadership. The more BS you have to spruik, the more you get paid.

Surely that’s all a really good thing.

silly

About bloody time…

Epiditi

http://www.medgadget.com/2013/10/epiditi-male-genitals-coolingheating-solution-looking-for-crowdfunding.html

Gallen Technology (Short Hills, New Jersey) is now crowdfunding the commercialization of a cooling sack that looks like an athletic safety cup but works like a nest to gently hold and cool, or heat, the family jewels. The company’s Epiditi device promises to deliver even thermotherapy and even has patents covering the underlying technology.

music

The Evolution of Western Dance Music Visualised

A super-excellent animated timeline portraying the evolution of western dance music. Even if it’s not perfectly correct, it’s a damn fine attempt, strangely hosted on a travel company website… why not!

Impressive to see what happens from the start of the 70’s and good to see “Deep House” properly represented in the same general vicinity as “Christian Hymns”.

History of Western Dance Music

http://www.thomson.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/infographic/interactive-music-map/index.html

Accompanying blog post:
http://www.thomson.co.uk/blog/2011/10/how-music-travels-infographic/

complex adaptive systems

Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems

Terrific O’Reilly Velocity 20 minute presentation by a Swedish Anaethestist on complex adaptive systems and a framework for thinking about them.

Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems: Operating at the Edge of Failure
Richard Cook
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm

Capture

http://youtu.be/PGLYEDpNu60

Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems: Operating At The Edge Of Failure

Systems seem to run at the very edge of failure much of the time. The combination of high workload, limited resources, pressure for additional features and capability, and inherent software, hardware, and network fragility is a noxious kettle of stuff always about to boil over in the form of outages, degraded response, or functional breakdowns. For insiders the surprising thing about our systems is not that they fail so often but that they fail so rarely! This good performance in the face of adverse conditions is called resilience. An important conclusion from resilience studies is that it depends critically on human operators and their ability to anticipate and monitor the system, react to threats, and sacrifice some goals to protect others. This talk will introduce resilience and a model of system dynamics useful in analyzing failed and successful event management and offer an explanation for why our systems run at the edge of failure.

data saving lives, entrepreneurship, healthcare, healthy habits, nutrition, politics, rapid learning health systems

Excruciating Clarity

PROBLEM

  • Contemporary health systems, and the health R&D systems that inform their behaviour, are failing to address the major threat of chronic disease because they are bound to legacy business models that depend on process over outcome.
  • These characteristics are leading to increasing health care costs in the absence of improving population health outcomes.
  • In frustration, Governments around the world are indicating that there is no more new money, with health systems being asked to operate within their current (and in some cases, diminishing) means.

SOLUTION

  • In response, the accepted business model for health care is slowly changing from a fee-for-service regime, to a value-based approach where providers are paid to improve health outcomes.
  • Similarly, the business model for medical research is changing, from a publish-or-perish, incremental-impirical regime, to a value-based approach where research is recognised ultimately for its clinical outcomes impact.
  • These changes will take time to occur is Australia, but are already well underway in the US, the UK and China.
  • To preserve their sustainability and viability, modern health systems will need to become sentient, focusing on prevention of harm from the contemporary modern food systems.
  • While health systems will always need to attend to illness as and when it presents, they will need to fund these activities out of savings made by avoiding preventable illness.
  • To achieve this, future health systems, and the R&D systems that inform them will be sentient, and feature the application of behavioural economics, real-time analytics, and predictive analytics to deliver low-unit-cost automated behavioural interventions.

OPPORTUNITY

  • The great Canadian ice hockey player Wayne Gretzky is often quoted as saying “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”
  • As a respected, successful and self-described entrepreneurial research institute, the George Institute is uniquely placed in Australia, but also internationally, to lead, and ultimately profit from these seismic disruptions in health system operations and performance.
  • There is an opportunity for the George Institute to establish a scalable, for-profit wellness generating clinic (working title: George Wellness) that, as a baseline, applies the latest understanding of wellness and prevention to a recruited population, but then uses continuous/frequent monitoring and real time analysis to develop a proprietary, preventive learning algorithm that delivers wellness to, while protecting this population from various harms in a powerful and demonstrable way.
complex adaptive systems, data saving lives, entrepreneurship, healthcare, healthy habits, nutrition, quantified self, rapid learning health systems, technology

Lunch date with Dickon

From: Paul Nicolarakis [mailto:paul.nicolarakis@outlook.com]
Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2013 8:09 PM
To: ‘Dickon Smart-Gill’
Subject: RE: Singpaore

Beautifully captured Dickon, and thank you for the eBook (it won’t go anywhere).

References for some of my contributions:

–          Online CBT pioneer: Prof. Helen Christensen/Black Dog Institute > blackdoginstitute.org.au // moodgym etc.

–          Research on protein and satiety in locusts, mice and men > Stephen Simpson

–          The Vitality Group (Sth Africa) – 15 min intro video on front page helpful, similarly 1hr webinar http://www.thevitalitygroup.com/

–          A short White Paper on Health Insurance billing analytics

 

Things we didn’t even get to, but expect to at some stage:

–          Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (author of Black Swan) >> totally rocked my world, suspect you might enjoy

–          Very strong case for plant based diet by Michael Greger MD

–          4 Hour Body by Timothy Ferris >> where I started my body hacking journey (slow carbs, protein, cruciferous, blow out, but also stuff on sex etc.)

–          Proteus Digital Health – end to end health monitoring, including blood composition via skin patches (warning: interesting but potential ufero)

–          Scanadu – personal medical tricorder

–          Ginger.io – behavioural health analytics platform

–          Omada Health – evidence-driven, online preventive health programs

–          Eatery by Massive Health – recently acquired by Jawbone, but previously doing some interesting things with diet, analytics and amazon’s mechanical turk  (warning: interesting but potential ufero)

–          Kaggle – data modelling competition platform (I’m mates with its founding chairman)

 

Rough vision for what I want to get going over the next 5 years (from diary post):

Over the next five years, I want to develop a health-generating, outcome-remunerated, scalable, for-profit enterprise dedicated to the effective (i.e. live outcome data and analytics, a la rapid learning health system), efficient (i.e. probably not involving doctors) optimization of population health through the application of mobile-mediated behavioural economics, epigenetics, ubiquitous sensors, real time, predictive analytics and the social determinants of health.

 

 

From: Dickon Smart-Gill [mailto:dickon@outlook.com]
Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2013 7:11 PM
To: ‘Paul Nicolarakis’
Subject: RE: Singpaore

 

Notes from our lunch

 

CBT apps are as effective as face to face with professionals. Mood Gym

 

Body by science – Doug McGuff – high intensity, simple exercises.

 

Eatstop eat attached.  A quick and easy read. I bought it, so please don’t forward it on to others just in case my name is encoded into the pdf somehow.

 

Leangains.com – 16-8 protocol. Obviously this guy is genetically gifted, but the fasting technique works for me too.  The key is ‘never any guilt’ if you mess up one day, simply forget it and try the next day.

 

80/20 rule for weight loss 80% being diet, the 20% being exercise.

 

Vitality – south Africa – interesting model to approach insurance companies.

 

Your potential opportunity with the data analysis for medical insurance claims/fraud. Possibility for the same sales approach that they used in the stock trading world.

 

Cauli dabbed with macadamia oil in an 210 degrees fan oven. Crunchy yet still moistish in the centre. Excellent snack food. I suggested adding turmeric (curcumin) for it’s anti inflammatory characteristics. Though not to modify the taste as that is already in order.

 

Standing desks (we both use them and see the benefits).

 

Feel free to add what I missed.

 

Dickon

 

 

 

 

 

From: Paul Nicolarakis [mailto:paul.nicolarakis@outlook.com]
Sent: Wednesday, 23 October, 2013 7:18 PM
To: ‘Dickon Smart-Gill’
Subject: RE: Singpaore

 

Great. How about 1230 for something meaty at:

 

Royal Mail

2 Finlayson Green

Ascott Raffles Place

 

http://www.ladyironchef.com/2012/12/the-royal-mail-prime-ribs-singapore/

 

 

 

 

From: Dickon Smart-Gill [mailto:dickon@outlook.com]
Sent: Wednesday, 23 October 2013 7:02 PM
To: Paul Nicolarakis
Subject: Re: Singpaore

 

Looking good for lunch. Name the time and place. I’m easy.

Sent from my iPhone
On 23 Oct, 2013, at 15:21, “Paul Nicolarakis” <paul.nicolarakis@outlook.com> wrote:

How are you looking for tomorrow? Any chance of lunch or afternoon instead of evening?

 

 

 

From: Paul Nicolarakis [mailto:paul.nicolarakis@outlook.com]
Sent: Friday, 18 October 2013 10:56 AM
To: ‘Dickon Smart-Gill’
Subject: RE: Singpaore

 

done

 

From: Dickon Smart-Gill [mailto:dickon@outlook.com]
Sent: Thursday, 17 October 2013 12:59 PM
To: Paul Nicolarakis
Subject: Re: Singpaore

 

Pencil in the evening of the 24 th.

Sent from my iPhone
On 17 Oct, 2013, at 8:15, “Paul Nicolarakis” <paul.nicolarakis@outlook.com> wrote:

I’m currently leaving on the 25th Dickon, but may stay longer… shall we try for something on the 24th?

 

Cheers, Paul

 

 

 

From: Dickon Smart-Gill [mailto:dickon@outlook.com]
Sent: Thursday, 17 October 2013 12:01 PM
To: ‘Paul Nicolarakis’
Subject: RE: Singpaore

 

Hi Paul,

 

I’m in Bangkok now.

 

However, on the 24th, 25th 26th, I’m in Singapore.

 

Does that overlap with your travel?

 

Dickon

 

From: Paul Nicolarakis [mailto:paul.nicolarakis@outlook.com]
Sent: Thursday, 17 October, 2013 5:31 AM
To: ‘Dickon Smart-Gill’
Subject: Singpaore

 

Checking in again… will be in Singapore next week, let me know if you’re around for a bevvy. Cheers, Paul

 

 

 

From: Dickon Smart-Gill [mailto:dickon@outlook.com]
Sent: Saturday, 14 September 2013 12:47 PM
To: ‘Paul Nicolarakis’
Subject: RE: g’day

 

I’m in Bangkok right now and will still be in Bangkok on Wednesday.

 

Thanks for the invite, if I were in singapore I would definitely have met up with you.

 

Dickon

 

From: Paul Nicolarakis [mailto:blackfriar@gmail.com]
Sent: Saturday, 14 September, 2013 5:05 AM
To: Dickon Smart-Gill
Subject: g’day

 

Hey Dickon,
Am in town through to Wednesday – would be good to catch up if you’re around?
Cheers, Paul

nutrition

China to overtake US fast food consumption

Euromonitor estimates that in 2015, China is predicted to overtake the US in fast food consumption (107 million tonnes vs 105 million tonnes respectively). With four times the US’s population, this is disappointing news for the US.

12% of the Chinese population (114 million) is now diagnosed with diabetes, vs around 10% for the US.

There are now more than 1600 McDonald’s outlets in China.

Awesome.

China’s Processed Food Consumption Will Soon Surpass America’s

healthy habits, nutrition

Michael Greger MD – Plant-based diet warrior

In these epic lectures, Michael Greger MD explores the various ways our modern diets, in concert with our modern health system, deliver ill-health to the community. While some views are extreme, the gist of it is that many of our modern maladies are the result of modern lifestyle choices, and that making healthier choices delivers direct health benefits, particularly with regard to plant-based diets and cardiovascular disease.

July 2013: http://nutritionfacts.org/video/more-than-an-apple-a-day-preventing-our-most-common-diseases/

July 2012: http://nutritionfacts.org/video/uprooting-the-leading-causes-of-death/

data saving lives, entrepreneurship, healthy habits, quotes & aphorisms, rapid learning health systems

Today’s the day I realised it’s time for me to step up

Had a really interesting day today.

Have settled nicely into the VLCD regime and feel I could persist with it as required. Caffeine delivered by green tea has added a pleasant boost.

I had a terrific meeting with Fiona Turnball and David Pieris at the George Institute.

I also met with the producer of an eHealth event in Melbourne who has asked me to speak (interestingly, George Margelis, the MC of the session, didn’t think to contact me, so am grateful that Steve Leeder did).

Bought Floppy’s 30th birthday opal from the least likely of vendors and prepped for the Hong Kong trip.

Among all that, I had a typically entertaining chat with Mark Hayman. Among the many pearls, one stuck out:

“I’ve reached a time in my life where I no longer want to be pissed off by what others say and do, and instead be happy to piss others off with what I say and do”

I also managed to crystallize what I want to dedicate the remainder of my professional life to. In essence, I want to develop a health creating, outcome remunerated, scalable, for-profit business dedicated to the effective, efficient population health optimization utilizing all the insights of behavioural economics, epigenetics, ubiquitous sensors, real time, predictive analytics and the social determinants of health.